MLB insider's list of 2025 breakout players serves as an indictment on organization

On September 24th, Jim Bowden wrote an article for The Athletic listing his top 20 breakout players. Not a single Cardinals player made the list. 

Bowden said this about compiling his names: "When I compile my annual list, my definition for a breakout candidate is simply a player who performed at a much higher level than his previous major-league track record, or a player who burst onto the scene and blew away the rookie field."

The Cardinals had no one who "blew away the rookie field." The Cardinals had only two rookies who had over 100 plate appearances: Thomas Saggese and Yohel Pozo. Saggese had a WAR of 0.5 and a wRC+ of 82. Pozo had a WAR of 0.3, and his wRC+ was 0.81. Nick Kurtz, a rookie who made the list, has a WAR of 4.3.

Only two rookie pitchers appeared in over 50 innings: Michael McGreevy and Matt Svanson. Their WAR numbers are 1.1 and 0.9, respectively. McGreevey had a good season but came in eighth for WAR among rookie pitchers. Again, neither rookie pitcher blew away the field. 

Looking at the Cardinals' batters, it’s easy to see why no one made the list. Most of the Cardinals actually went backward this year. Masyn Winn took a step back on WAR and wRC+, Donovan took a step back in WAR (3.2 to 2.8), but his wRC+ was about the same. Scott, Pages, Nootbaar, Aranado, Gorman and Walker had wRC+ numbers below average. I don’t think you make a breakout list if you are still below league average.

There were only two Cardinals who improved this year. 

Ivan Herrera saw his WAR go from 2.1 to 2.8. His wRC+ jumped from 128 to 141. He mainly did this by sacrificing some batting average for power. He went from five home runs to 19. Herrera has walked the same but struck out less often. His contact rate is slightly better. His biggest improvement seems to be that he is just hitting the ball harder. The barrel rate and hard-hit rate have improved quite a bit since last year. 

The only other Cardinal that made an improvement over last year was Alec Burleson. His WAR jumped from 0.7 to 2.1, and his wRC+ increased from 106 to 126.  

When looking at a list like Bowden’s, we always want to see players from our team. There is only one player who could have made the list, and that is Burleson. Comparing what he has done with James Wood, for instance, there is a clear case that the improvements over last year are about the same, but Wood only played left field and DH. Burleson gets the edge here because he can play right, left, first base, and DH. Neither player will be in line for a Gold Glove, but Burleson’s outs above average went from a -9 to a -4. Wood went from a -4 and got worse with a -5. So if you look at improved hitting, you should also look at the improved fielding, even if both are negative fielders. 

The takeaway is not that the Cardinals didn’t have anyone on the list, but that there were so many players who went backward. At the beginning of the season, we were told this was a runway year. The Cardinals were going to use this season to see exactly what they had for the following year. Burleson and Herrera were the only two players who lifted off the runway. And no one had a breakout year.