MLB insider hints at which veteran will survive Cardinals' trade purge

The Sonny Gray trade began what sure feels like an inevitable fire sale in St. Louis, with both Nolan Arenado and Willson Contreras firmly on the chopping block leading into the Winter Meetings.

Arenado still appears to be a lock to be traded this offseason, and with two relatively cheap years remaining on his contract and a declining profile on both sides of the ball, it would make sense for Chaim Bloom to pull the trigger and ship the third baseman out of town.

Contreras is a slightly different story, however, as a still-above-average bat who played a sterling first base in 2025. He's posted a wRC+ above 124 in each of his three years with the Redbirds, and he supplied six Outs Above Average at the cold corner in his debut at the position in 2025.

As such, it may not be too surprising to hear that Ken Rosenthal is of the belief that Contreras may survive the Cardinals' winter purge.

Willson Contreras may not want to be traded despite ongoing Cardinals rebuild efforts

After acknowledging that Arenado is "going to be traded" this offseason, Rosenthal explained: "Willson Contreras is a little bit different. He has said he wants to stay — now, will he want to stay after they start trading not only [Gray and Arenado], but also Brendan Donovan and potentially Lars Nootbar and Nolan Gorman? That's a different question," the MLB insider reported on Foul Territory.

Comparing Contreras' current situation with that of Byron Buxton in Minnesota, Rosenthal stated that he believes the veteran first baseman may look for a way out, but only if the Cardinals truly commit to selling off all their spare parts this offseason.

Of course, the Cardinals will likely want to move Contreras' remaining contract (two years, $36.5 million) after having to eat more than $20 million to move Sonny Gray and pick up pitching prospect Brandon Clarke, but that's not an outrageous price tag for someone who profiles as the team's best hitter in the short term.

In 2025, Contreras hit .257/.344/.447 (124 wRC+) with 20 home runs and 80 RBIs. He was even better last year, producing 15 home runs and a 141 wRC+ in just 82 games. Now permanently removed from catching, it's easy to expect the right-handed slugger to continue mashing even as he ages deeper into his thirties.

Though that gives him quite a bit of trade value, it also gives him value to the Cardinals, who will be without veteran leadership once Arenado is traded. Besides their corner infield duo, the oldest player on the roster (and the only other one over 30 years old) is relief pitcher Riley O'Brien.

If the Cardinals find an offer to their linking, expect them to move Contreras this winter. But if the veteran continues to express a desire to stay in St. Louis, it wouldn't be the worst idea to have a World Series champion hang around through the beginning stages of a rebuild.