MLB insider gifts Cardinals top prospect in blockbuster trade proposal

The St. Louis Cardinals' plan at the trade deadline is anyone's guess. They're still in the playoff hunt as we near the end of June, but John Mozeliak must balance competition, opportunities for young players, the future of the organization after he's gone, and his own legacy. That's not an easy task.

This hasn't stopped people throughout the industry from proposing trades related to the Cardinals lately.

Jim Bowden of The Athletic recently created difference-making trades for every contending team in the National League Wild Card race. Luckily for us, the St. Louis Cardinals made the cut.

Jim Bowden dreams of the St. Louis Cardinals trading third baseman Nolan Arenado and closer Ryan Helsley plus cash for Detroit Tigers prospect Kevin McGonigle.

Do I really expect the Cardinals to trade Ryan Helsley if they're still in the Wild Card race? No, I don't. Do I really expect Nolan Arenado to accept a trade — to a team that wasn't on his original "list" especially — if the Cardinals are still in the Wild Card race? No, I don't.

This type of trade probably won't happen, but if the Cardinals were to unload Arenado, Helsley, and some cash, this is the type of return that will make all parties involved happy.

While Arenado's offense isn't what it once was, his defense is as good as ever. Arenado is third in all of baseball among third basemen in Outs Above Average with three, and his four defensive runs saved are good enough to place him seventh in all of baseball among third basemen. He's still a below-average hitter according to wRC+ (98), but he's regained some of his power, as he has a .405 slugging percentage and a .154 ISO; both figures are better than the power numbers he posted last year. Arenado's 10 home runs are tied for the most on the Cardinals right now.

Ryan Helsley has taken a step back this year. The two-time All-Star and franchise single-season save record holder has a 3.67 ERA this year, his highest mark since 2021. He's logged 14 saves this year, a respectable number, but his strikeout rate has fallen pretty dramatically (26.9%). Batters are hitting .255 against him, and he's allowing 1.33 home runs per nine innings with a walk rate in excess of 10%.

Helsley's fastball has been getting walloped all year, and if he can't figure that out, his value will be low.

However, even with all these degrading factors, Bowden still believes the Cardinals can get a top-50 prospect in all of baseball back at the deadline for both Helsley and Arenado, plus cash. Of course, to make this deal happen, "Arenado would have to waive his no-trade clause and the Cardinals would have to pay down his contract significantly," writes Bowden. "But even if St. Louis had to pay the entire freight, it would be worth it to land McGonigle."

I don't expect the DeWitt family to take on ALL of Arenado's remaining salary, but reporting from the offseason indicated that the Cardinals would be willing to eat around $20 million of the remaining $52 million on his deal. If they can get around that figure, I'm sure Detroit would be willing to make an agreement.

In return, Bowden gives the Cardinals infield prospect Kevin McGonigle, Detroit's second-overall prospect according to MLB Pipeline and the 22nd-overall prospect in baseball. McGonigle, 20, was drafted 37th overall in the 2023 draft by the Tigers.

He primarily plays shortstop, but he's found himself at second base a time or two as a prospect. I know what you're thinking: "The Cardinals already have a surplus of middle infielders. Masyn Winn is the shortstop of the future, and JJ Wetherholt is next in line. Do we really need another shortstop?"

Well, when you have the chance to grab a top-25 prospect, you do it. Having a surplus of athletic shortstops is not a bad thing. Just ask the San Diego Padres. Wetherholt or McGonigle could move to another position easily.

McGonigle bats from the left side (another lefty bat, too, Thomas?! Really?!), and he boasts an excellent hit tool. He started the year at Low-A, but he was promoted to High-A after only six games. Since his promotion, McGonigle has slashed .394/.479/.717 with five home runs and 28 runs batted in. He has walked more than he's struck out throughout his time as a prospect, too.

Trading Nolan Arenado would open up playing time for Nolan Gorman, Alec Burleson, Thomas Saggese, and Jordan Walker. It would be difficult to replace Ryan Helsley, but the Cardinals do have some internal options who could replace him with varying degrees of success.

It would be difficult to say goodbye to both Nolan Arenado and Ryan Helsley at the deadline if the Cardinals are still in contention, but this is the exact type of move that John Mozeliak should make if he puts more value in the future of the organization than in finishing 2025 with a fight.