Miles Mikolas 2.0: Cardinals should avoid temptation to sign former Cubs ace

Depending on who you ask, the Chicago Cubs' decision to decline Shota Imanaga's three-year, $57 million team option was either shocking or expected, but either way, it does send another starting pitcher with top-of-the-rotation credentials to free agency.

The rebuilding St. Louis Cardinals likely won't be too involved in that end of the market, but a veteran pitcher looking to rebuild his value could be a perfect sign-and-flip candidate for a team that needs to infuse the farm system with more talent. That's especially true if Imanaga feels disrespected by the Cubs and wants revenge.

However, the Cardinals would be wise to resist temptation here. Imanaga suffered from the same home run plague that Miles Mikolas did in 2025, which is a reality St. Louis should have no interest in reliving.

Shota Imanaga's home run problems should keep Cardinals from pursuing.

Anecdotally, it felt like Mikolas gave up 100 home runs in 2025, but among all pitchers who threw at least 100 innings this season, he "only" ranked ninth, with 29 homers surrendered.

Three spots ahead of him is where Imanaga finished (technically tied for fourth), having given up 31 home runs over the course of the regular season. He was truly a mess down the stretch, as over his final nine starts of the regular season, Imanaga allowed at least one home run in every appearance, including multi-homer efforts in five of his final six starts. That trend continued into the playoffs, as the Japanese southpaw surrendered three home runs in just 6 2/3 frames.

Now, no individual performance was quite as bad as the July 4 massacre when Mikolas watched half a mile of home runs fly past him in Wrigley Field, and Imanaga generally kept things together outside of his longball problems.

However, Imanaga is a fly-ball pitcher (39.7% fly-ball rate in 2025, compared to a 29.1% ground-ball rate) who relies on precision and movement to get hitters out. When those fail, a fastball that averages less than 91 mph is going to get hit around quite a bit.

Imanaga had to decline a one-year, $15 million option in order to reach free agency, meaning he'll expect more than that salary (likely over multiple years) on the open market. There's probably going to be some team that is willing to give that to him — pitchers with a 3.28 ERA over 318.0 innings don't grow on trees — but there are so many red flags in his profile, and it's uncertain if he can turn things around at 32 years old.

As tempting as it may be for the Cardinals to pilfer the Cubs' talented array of free-agent arms this offseason, they'd be wise to steer clear on Imanaga.