Michael McGreevy's numbers look elite, but data seems to hate the Cardinals starter

Through one month, the Cardinals have a back-of-the-baseball-card pitching star in Michael McGreevy. In seven starts and nearly 40 innings of work, McGreevy owns a sparkling 2.52 ERA. That’s good for 13th in all of baseball for qualified starters. For the Cardinals' overall team record, this means that McGreevy has been supplying elite run-suppressing innings for a team that’s in desperate need of quality pitching.

This is all fantastic news. Truly and genuinely. What Cardinals fan isn’t absolutely in love with this team at this moment in time? When you go to look at how Michael McGreevy is arriving at these results though, you’re honestly left scratching your head. Before I dive into the numbers, let me prime you with a conversation we had on Redbird Rundown about whether McGreevy can keep outpitching his metrics. It’s a fascinating subject and one that will be very important if this team can make a playoff push well before anyone expected. Apple and Spotify!

The scary numbers behind McGreevy’s start to the season for the Cardinals

And now, some startling numbers so we can intelligently and rationally (hopefully!) discuss what McGreevy has been doing. Statcast, as I’m sure you know, takes the raw data from cameras in the stadium to compare to every other baseball play that’s ever been tracked to give fans some expected stats. It’s honestly an incredible amount of data and so the results are pretty durable. Remember, McGreevy is 13th amongst qualified starters with a 2.52 ERA. Well, Statcast has him in the 10th percentile for expected ERA at 6.18. Yikes. He’s also in the bottom 10th percentile when it comes to expected batting average and expected slugging.

Basically, when Statcast compares how players are hitting balls off of McGreevy to how players are hitting balls off of every other pitcher in the MLB since 2015, it thinks McGreevy is a ticking time bomb. This is obviously not the result Cardinals fans want and would be a devastating blow to any nascent playoff hopes that are kindling in the fanbase. 

Let’s hold our collective breath for one more collective cold plunge. McGreevy is almost the worst pitcher in baseball when it comes to strikeout rate, whiff %, and chase %. Essentially, batters are just not fooled by his arsenal and don’t swing and miss very often. What’s odd is he’s not even keeping the ball on the ground at career-high rates. In fact, flyballs against McGreevy are up 10%. So what gives? How is this guy vastly outpitching his stuff through seven starts?

There are two key ways McGreevy is finding success early this season

First of all, he doesn’t walk anyone. Well, that’s not strictly true, but his walk rate is in the 96th percentile. One of the coaches for my brother’s team had a saying growing up that has always stuck in my head. He’d say “‘em walks is killin’ us.” He’s not a major league coach. He’s not a D1 coach. He coached middle school Little League – but his baseball observation was timelessly true. (Just ask Ryne Stanek.) Michael McGreevy excels in not beating himself. That’s vitally important for a guy who does not, and will not ever, have the raw stuff to overpower a lineup. So, Michael, ‘em non-walks is givin’ us life. Keep it up!

The other way he’s finding success is going to get dorkier, so strap on your pocket protectors. Pitchers do worse each time they make their way through a batting order. This makes sense. Batters see the arsenal more, adjust to it, and do far more damage. When you look at McGreevy’s splits, his second time through the order and dreaded third time through the order numbers look normal. But, he has been Greg Maddux so far the first time through the order.

He’s running a 1.04 ERA in the first turn through the order and stifling lineups to a .194/.206/.290 line. So far in 2026, there’s been no period of “settling in” to games for McGreevy. He’s been locked in and ready to go from the outset. His bullpen preparation pregame, pinpoint control, and varied pitching arsenal have teamed up to put a wet blanket on teams the first time through the order.

Will this continue? Honestly, I’m a bit doubtful that he can continue to outpitch these batted ball metrics to this level, but Michael McGreevy does have a couple of very important skills that he can lean on to continue to outpitch what the raw data says. I don’t know about you, but I’m rooting for him to just that. I’d love nothing more than for this young team to stay in the playoff hunt all season.

Thanks for reading!

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