Matthew Liberatore could replicate the breakout success of another Cardinals starter

While the 2024 season was about as mediocre as it could have been for the St. Louis Cardinals, there were a few bright spots in the midst of an offense that constantly underachieved and a pitching staff that was average enough at times to get them by.

Masyn Winn was an exciting rookie and showed the Cardinals their belief in him as their long-term shortstop was warranted. Willson Contreras continued to show why he's one of the best hitters in all of baseball. Ivan Herrera's breakout year at the plate laid the groundwork for what we began to see during the 2025 season.

But one of the most surprising and refreshing revelations for the Major League club last year was the rise of Andre Pallante as an impactful option in the Cardinals rotation. Prior to 2024, Pallante was ripped back and forth from the bullpen and rotation, spending time in Memphis getting things right and filling whatever need the Major League club asked for. But once Pallante was given a true runway in the Cardinals' rotation, well, he finally began to establish himself as a legitimate big-league starter.

Sound familiar?

Matthew Liberatore could be this year's version of Andre Pallante for the St. Louis Cardinals.

Prior to the 2024 season, Pallante received 10 starts at the big league level, posting a 3.98 ERA in 54.1 innings of work. While he had some bright spots, his glaring weakness, an inability to get outs against right-handed hitters, made his future as a starter about as bleak as one's could be.

After a quick trip to Memphis early in the 2024 season, Pallante returned to the big-league club as a starter and was the Cardinals' most productive starter the rest of the year. The "death ball" that he developed the offseason prior helped him continue to neutralize left-handed hitters, and his newfound feel for his sinker allowed him to do enough against righties to keep them in check.

It was a quirky path toward success and an unlikely rise, but at the end of the day, the Cardinals are now much better off because of Pallante's presence. The club's inability to develop starting pitching in the 2020s has been a major part of their downfall, and if the club is going to right this ship over the next few years, they'll have to change that.

There is exciting young pitching coming up through the system right now, but we are already seeing this year why it is paramount that the club develop as many young arms as they can. Top pitching prospect Quinn Mathews just hit the injured list with shoulder soreness, and there is no timetable yet for his return. Tink Hence is dealing with a rib injury that landed him on the 60-day injured list. And yesterday, the club announced Cooper Hjerpe had season-ending elbow surgery and would not be back until the middle of 2026.

We aren't even through the month of April yet, and the future of the Cardinals' young arms is back to the same uncertainty that we've grown used to. Yes, the upside of those arms is still worth the excitement, but as Cardinals fans have come to know all too well with arms like Alex Reyes, Jack Flaherty, Michael Wacha, and more, injuries can derail those futures out of nowhere.

Michael McGreevy and Tekoah Roby represent their best healthy pitching prospects at the moment, while more may join them here soon. But in the meantime, it would serve the Cardinals well to exhaust every other possible young option they might have, and it's why I've been a huge fan of them giving Matthew Liberatore a chance to be the next arm to rise to the occasion.

Liberatore's standing within the organization was far different from Pallante's prior to his first taste of big-league action. A former first-round pick and top-100 prospect, Liberatore was acquired from the Tampa Bay Rays in the Randy Arozarena trade, and the organization acquired him with the hopes of him becoming a front-line starter for them.

In Liberatore's 18 starts at the big league level prior to 2025, things went even more poorly for him than they did for Pallante. Liberatore posted a 5.72 ERA and 4.66 FIP in those outings, and while some of them came as spot starts or while being toggled back and forth from the rotation and the bullpen, it was still bad baseball from his end.

There were standout starts here and there from Liberatore, including gems against the Rays in 2023 and Braves in 2024, but he was unable to maintain the magic he captured in those outings. A large part of Liberatore's problem as a starter resembled what plagued Pallante — he was dynamite against lefties, but right-handed hitters teed off on him. Liberatore was unable to maintain his fastball velocity in starts, dropping from 95 MPH to 96 MPH in shorter stints to just 93.9 MPH when he was stretched out.

It's a small sample size so far, but in 2025, Liberatore's fastball is averaging 94.2 MPH in his three starts, and while his second start's velocity dipped a bit, he averaged over 94 MPH in his first start, and in his third start against the Phillies, he covered six innings of work with the fastball averaging 95 MPH.

That start against the Phillies was easily the best he's been so far this year, but it's especially impressive given how good the the Phillies' lineup is. Liberatore's first two starts were okay outings, but it's what he was able to do in that outing that should really have people fired up.

On the season, Liberatore has been even more dominant than he usually is when facing lefties. Of the 16 left-handed hitters he has faced so far, they are slashing just .067/.125/.067, striking out 50% of them along the way. Righties have found more success, but they haven't been great off him either. The 55 right-handed hitters he has faced are slashing .291/.291/.400 off of him, and if he is able to shut down lefties like he has so far, that will play in a major way.

Over his career, righties have posted a .292/.361/.499 slash line, unplayable for a starter but something he can manage out of the bullpen in shorter stints. But if opposing right-handed hitters' OPS can look more like that .691 number he's sporting this year, there's real potential for Liberatore to become a real asset in the rotation.

It's far too early in the season to stay that Liberatore will work out as a starter, but the results certainly look promising thus far. The Cardinals need to let Liberatore remain in the rotation for a long run here to see if it can be real or not, but if they have found something here with him, I actually think he has the ability to be even more impactful of a starter than Pallante has been so far. That's not meant as a shot at Pallante, but rather the kind of upside Liberatore possesses. There's a reason he was a first-round pick by Chaim Bloom in Tampa Bay and a reason why the baseball industry saw him as one of the best left-handed pitching prospects in the game.

What will come of Liberatore's opportunity in the rotation? That remains to be seen. It could very easily fall apart just as quickly as the hype built back up, and if it does, well, at least they tried. I don't think it is fair to say that Liberatore hasn't been given chances by the Cardinals, but like many prospects before (and even after him), I also can't say they've quite set him up for success along the way either. This is their opportunity to let him run for a while, and who knows, maybe he'll make the most of it.

If he does, the Cardinals will have gone from zero young starters in their rotation as recent as the beginning of 2024 to two homegrown options whom they could turn to moving forward.