Making the case for and against the Cardinals giving Alec Burleson an extension

The St. Louis Cardinals have a star in their midst! That’s probably the fifth time you’ve heard that this season–which speaks to the plentiful talent within the organization. But this time, it’s no newcomer; it’s Alec Burleson, cementing himself as a foundational piece and provoking extension talks across the league. 

In a recent episode of the Just Baseball Media Podcast, host Aram Leighton discussed Burleson’s gaudy year. 

“If I’m the Cardinals, this is someone I’m looking at and saying, ‘Alright, we’ve got young guys coming, but this isn’t a rebuild.’ You’ve got pieces here!” said Leighton.

“I just feel like with Burleson, it’s not gonna cost you an arm and a leg, but he’s just a player who’s such an important building block for you. And if you don’t do it now, you've got two more years of arb left; it might be difficult. 

“I’d imagine that Burleson loves being a Cardinal and doesn’t want to leave, but this leap this year is interesting to me because I did have a question a little bit of–maybe what we saw last year is that just who he is? Which is still a really good player, but not a guy who’s popping 115 EVs, and nothing is absolutely jumping off the page. 

“So is he gonna be more of that 18-21 homer guy, but he puts the ball in play consistently? At the end of the day, it’s still gonna be right around an .800 OPS at first base, and a couple WAR player.” 

Leighton raises some valid points about Burleson and the Cardinals' future. 

Let’s dive into why St. Louis should consider extending its breakout stud, and why hesitancy might be the alternative. 

Why the Cardinals should extend Alec Burleson 

Offense: Since winning a Silver Slugger last season, Burleson has become something undeniable in the batter’s box. This year, almost every metric you can imagine has climbed, including his xBA, xSLG, xwOBA, and his hard-hit percentage. Now, most hitters who take a huge step forward meet a counterpunch. Pitchers adjust, find weaknesses, and do their darndest to expose them. Fortunately for Burleson and the Redbirds, his new spell can’t be countered.

The new strategy isn’t actually new; it’s just a more honed-in version of what Burleson already was. When the slugger first arrived in MLB, he got berated with pitches outside the zone that he seemed inclined to chase. The obvious solution was to cut down on chasing, and take those pitches, right? Wrong. Burleson, as dubbed by Cardinal announcer Chip Caray and various analysts around the league, is a “bad ball” hitter. He takes pitches outside of the zone, and turns them into balls in the gap–and he just might be the best to do it since Pablo Sandoval was tearing it up for the Giants. This season, Burleson’s out-of-zone swing percentage has jumped a whopping 8.1%, landing him in the 14th percentile in terms of chase. Still, he’s improved his walk and barrel percentage–while sporting the raw stats to back up the analytical forecasts. In layman's terms: Burleson has alien bat-to-ball skills, and rather than playing baseball how it’s supposed to be played, he’s finally doing it his own way. And the results speak for themselves. 

Defense: I’d be a complete hypocrite if I hopped on here and talked about first base defense like it was some lorehold of good fortune for a team. I’ve been outspoken against Sal Stewart in the ROTY race, with his defensive impact being limited at the “cold corner.” However, baseball recently released a statistic that quantifies first basemen who can “pick it” around the bag. As a former collegiate first baseman, I not only felt vindicated, but also seen. Who ranked atop the podium? Your very own, Burleson.

The eye test matches, as he’s stapled countless web gems together on the backend and is the bass of the Cardinals’ infield band. We’ll call Masyn Winn the lead singer; JJ Wetherholt can be on drums, and whoever plays third can have the tambourine usually reserved for someone's significant other, or a child. There aren’t many first basemen in baseball that provide value defensively, let alone ones that also swing it. When you stumble upon a two-way player, regardless of position, it shouldn’t be so easy to let go. 

Temperament: In a recent interview with former Cardinals beat reporter, now Dodgers beat writer Katie Woo, Burleson made it clear he wants to stay in St. Louis. “How much would it mean to you to extend your career in St. Louis, and be a part of this long term?” Woo asked on Foul Territory. “Yeah, definitely. I love St. Louis. My family loves St. Louis. Obviously, all of the guys here, we either played in the minors together, or we’ve been with the Cardinals in the big leagues for a while. I was thinking about that at the trade deadline this year. We’re building toward something that’s going to look really good in the next couple of years, and I’d like to think that I’ve been a small part of that. In the off chance this trade deadline I was traded, it would’ve hurt a little bit just to leave that…Like I said, I love St. Louis. The fans, and the staff, and the players. It’s very comfortable. It feels like home, and I’m not sure what it’s gonna look like in the next few years, but I’d definitely like to be around for it.”

One of the most underrated aspects of building a roster is emotional and mental commitment–to the organization, fans, players, staff, owners, and front office. The Boston Red Sox learned the hard way with Rafael Devers: you can’t extend solely based on talent, because the human element is imperative to baseball. Burleson, in his own words, loves St. Louis, and that should play a key part in moving the needle toward an extension. 

Still, every move like this has its drawbacks. What would those be in the case of locking up Burleson?

The Cardinals' hesitation toward an Alec Burleson extension

As previously mentioned, Burleson plays a position with limited defensive impact. Even though he thrives at first base, he’ll never be as valuable as a good shortstop, center fielder, or catcher (unless he hits like an MVP candidate). 

That being said, the room for error becomes much smaller. Burleson HAS to hit. He cannot afford a season like Winn’s across the diamond, where the bat disappears and the glove glistens. 

And with the manic trends that come with any hitter, it’s a bit sketchy to extend a player who has such a unique profile. There isn’t really another batter like Burleson, who swings at such awful pitches, yet still performs at an elite level. 

To this point, the sample size seems large enough to deem Burleson an everyday player. We’re past the guessing game that ensued after his initial breakout. 

However, the Cardinals don’t have room for dead money right now, and even though Burleson feels like a solid player to hedge bets on. If he flopped, it could cause ramifications on the next wave of young talent vying for contract extensions.   

The Cardinals are playing it safe with Burleson. Just like they did with all the prospects who’ve thrived this season, and just like POBO Chaim Bloom will do until he’s ready to go for it. 

Fans have every right to wave their hands in the air and chant in unison for a big-time Burly payday, but until Bloom sees it’s the right time for the Cardinals to cash in, don’t expect a wild spending spree. 

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