JJ Wetherholt's surprise injury news may explain how he lost NL Rookie of the Year lead

In a surprise announcement from the St. Louis Cardinals this morning, star rookie JJ Wetherholt was placed on the injured list with right wrist tendinitis. The Cardinals are hopeful that he can return to the field soon, but the news itself may explain why Wetherholt saw the NL Rookie of the Year race lead slip through his fingers

Wetherholt was reportedly dealing with pain for about a month now, with the issue worsening over the last few days as he's been playing shortstop every day in Masyn Winn's absence. The timeline for the pain he's been experiencing certainly lines up with the decline in production we've seen as of late.

Prior to the All-Star Break, Wetherholt slashed .259/.356/.399, good for a 114 wRC+ on 13 home runs, 10 doubles, and 36 RBI. Since the second half began, Wetherholt has been far worse, hitting .201/.313/.305 with just four home runs and four doubles. He's been 20% below league average at the plate over that stretch, but has maintained his elite defense.

For a long time, it felt like the Rookie of the Year award was all but wrapped up in favor of Wetherholt, but as his offensive numbers declined, Reds' Sal Stewart kept raking at the plate, and the race started to become closer and closer, with this news likely fully swinging things in Stewart's direction. History favors Stewart's production in this race, as he's putting together a season as one of only 11 rookies in baseball history with 30 home runs and 100 RBI.

Had Wetherholt remained productive offensively, his truly elite defense and great base running would have made it much easier for him to take home the award, but he's been cold for too long at the plate to ignore what Steward is doing. I still think it is clear that Wetherholt is not only the better player but has also been more valuable than Stewart this year, but these awards tend to favor those traditional offensive numbers too much for Wetherholt to overcome now.

JJ Wetherholt has still had a great rookie season with the Cardinals

Sure, Wetherholt could return soon and go on a heater, but assuming he's not going to take the home award anymore, it would be a mistake to view his rookie year as anything less than a major success.

As of today, Wetherholt is tied for ninth in all of baseball in fWAR (4.4), a number that should wow any Cardinals fan. He's still been an above-league-average hitter this year, pairing that with top-3 defense in all of baseball among all positions and some of the best base running in the game, too.

Wetherholt on the season is third in all of baseball in outs above average, trailing just Bobby Witt Jr. and Pete Crow-Armstrong. Among second basemen, Wetherholt's 21 OAA at second base is nine better than Brewers' Brice Turang, who is second among second basemen. That is truly an insane level-up Wetherholt has on his contemporaries in just year one of his career.

On the basepaths, Wetherholt is tied for 13th among all players in baserunning runs, a metric that measures a player's total value on the basepaths - from taking the extra base after a hit or when a teammate puts the ball in play, to stealing bases at a high level.

At the plate, while Wetherholt's offense has lagged the last month and a half, he's still a top-10 hitter among all second basemen by wRC+ (104), and his xwOBA, a metric that measures what a player's expected production is based on the quality of their contact, is actually third-best among second basemen this year (.351). A big reason why he has not met that metric thus far has been how Busch Stadium suppresses hitters.

Wetherholt has played 65 games at home and 64 on the road this year, with his numbers away from Busch Stadium being far better than in St. Louis, something almost every Cardinals player has in common this year. Wetherholt is slashing .222/.305/.317 with seven home runs and three doubles at Busch Stadium, which is a 78 wRC+ on the year. On the road, Wetherholt is batting .261/.379/.423 with 10 home runs and 11 doubles, good for a 128 wRC+. Only Luke Keaschall of the Minnesota Twins has a better wRC+ among second basemen on the road this year.

The Cardinals won't earn an extra draft selection because of Wetherholt's play now, but life goes on. The bigger win is knowing that they have a top second baseman in baseball on their hands, and if Wetherholt can continue to build upon this rookie season in the years to come, he'll have a great career on his hands.

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