Jake Bauers payday with Red Sox brings greater clarity to Cardinals' Alec Burleson extension talks

Ladies and gentlemen, the hot stove is heating up! Jake Bauers, who just helped slug the Milwaukee Brewers to their first World Series championship, has landed a four-year, $58 million deal with the Boston Red Sox, creating a really interesting comp for the St. Louis Cardinals as they consider an Alec Burleson extension.

Bauers and Burleson are both finalists for the National League Silver Slugger Award at first base, the winner of which will be announced by FanSided on November 17th, and both received a down-ballot NL MVP vote this year, making them very interesting comps for one another. Bauers is obviously a free agent, while Burleson still has two years of club control remaining and is estimated to make about $8.3 million in arbitration.

Let's dive into the details a bit and find out how closely these deals could end up aligning.

Jake Bauers deal with Red Sox gives at least a ballpark for what the contract Cardinals may be able to sign Alec Burleson to

First, let's do some side-by-side analysis. Here are some important numbers for how both Burleson and Bauers performed in 2026.

Jake Bauers (2026) - .266/.389/.484, 143 wRC+, 26 HR, 86 RBI, 50 XBH, 27.0 K%, 16.3 BB%, .381 xwOBA, -5 OAA (at first base), -1 1B receiving (3.6 fWAR, 144 G)
Alec Burleson (2026) - .279/.343/.473, 125 wRC+, 26 HR, 116 RBI, 64 XBH, 18.1 K%, 8.2 BB%, .374 xwOBA, 0 OAA, +6 1B receiving (3.2 fWAR, 160 G)

Bauers had the edge offensively this year, but was a far worse defender than Burleson and did not play a full season. He also lacks the track record of Burleson, with 2025 being the only other year in Bauers' career when he was an above-league hitter (115 wRC+). Burleson, on the other hand, posted a 124 wRC+ in 2025 and 106 wRC+ in 2024.

Earlier this offseason, I projected a Burleson extension to look more like a five-year, $90 million deal, with room for that number to go up or down a bit based on how the market fares. This would buy out two years of team control and three years of Burleson's free agency, and put the AAV of the deal at $18 million. This certainly points to that number potentially being lower.

One thing to note about Bauers is that he made $2.7 million in arbitration last year before hitting free agency, while Burleson is already projected at $8.3 million for arbitration in 2027, with one more year of arbitration to go in 2028. He could be making anywhere around $12 million in his final year of arbitration, and he'd be hitting free agency a year younger than Bauers did with a longer track record.

I think it's fair to assume that, if Burleson keeps this production up, he will be worth a bit more in annual value than Bauers was due to his age, track record, and at least average to above-average defense at first base. But if an extension does happen now, the Cardinals would be taking on some risk by betting on Burleson continuing this production and locking him in now, which would give them a bit of a discount as opposed to paying that money when he hits free agency.

Because of all of that, I'm setting the market for a Burleson extension at around five years, $75 million. It could be a bit lower, maybe a bit higher, but I think we've got a pretty good idea now of what it will take to get a deal done. And remember, Burleson has been very open about his desire to stay with the Cardinals.

If the two sides cannot find common ground, then Burleson becomes a very interesting trade candidate. But I think we can all agree that the Cardinals should lock Burleson in soon.

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