Is Oliver Marmol improving as a manager for the St. Louis Cardinals?

As the baseball season progresses, we gain a clearer picture of each team’s performance, with some already engaging in minor trades. Our own Scott Plaza has even compiled a list of potential Cardinals trade chips. At this point, we can assess individual player progression, backed by a wealth of statistics. For example, Victor Scott II’s improvement is noticeable, while Nolan Gorman’s struggles are equally apparent. The underlying reasons for these shifts, however, are less clear. Is it purely player performance, or is the coaching and managerial staff failing to optimize their positioning for success?

While the argument “the manager doesn’t hit” holds some truth, a manager’s influence extends significantly beyond that. They determine when a player swings (or doesn’t, via signs), when to pinch-hit, and when to call for a stolen base. They don’t pitch, but they decide when a pitcher has thrown one too many pitches. Therefore, evaluating a manager’s performance requires a different lens.

Over the past few years, I’ve identified several key metrics that fall directly under a manager’s responsibility. To ensure fairness, I’ve focused on criteria that allow for meaningful comparison. For instance, comparing the stolen bases of a “Whiteyball” era team to the current team wouldn’t be reasonable due to different contexts. However, comparing this year’s Cardinals to the other 31 MLB teams is. I’ve excluded stats like home runs, as a manager cannot directly call for them, but included actions they control, such as calling for a bunt, deciding when to change pitchers, or authorizing a stolen base. I will refrain from critiquing specific player choices for pitching changes or pinch-hitting, as we lack insight into potential undisclosed issues affecting those players.

From a macro perspective, the Cardinals’ record on June 1st this year stands at 33 wins and 26 losses, an improvement over last year’s 27-29. However, much like pitcher wins, this statistic can be misleading.

Let's take a look at how the Cardinals are playing in all three phases of under Oliver Marmol's leadership