Hunter Dobbins' future is brighter than Cardinals fans realize

In a long-expected move, the St. Louis Cardinals finally offloaded Willson Contreras in a trade, striking their second deal of the offseason with the Boston Red Sox.

Though Blake Aita and Yhoiker Fajardo are intriguing pitching prospects that should develop well in Chaim Bloom's new pitching-focused organization, Hunter Dobbins is the clear draw here. The 26-year-old burst onto the scene as a rookie in 2025, only for a torn ACL in July to completely halt his momentum.

Though there's no clear timeline for his return — he's previously cited Opening Day 2026 as his goal, though that remains uncertain — Dobbins should have little issue returning to form once he's back on the mound. At that point, he won't have any issues becoming a fixture in the Redbirds' rotation.

Hunter Dobbins will emerge as Cardinals' breakout pitcher in 2026

There should be no confusion as to why the Cardinals targeted Dobbins in this trade — the right-hander was originally selected by Bloom in the eighth round of the 2021 MLB Draft out of Texas Tech, while the front office executive was leading the Red Sox.

I actually had the opportunity to cover Dobbins earlier in the season (prior to his injury) at Talk Sox, a site dedicated to Red Sox coverage. He was exceptionally impressive in his limited stint in the majors, and Cardinals fans should be thrilled that he's coming to St. Louis.

His surface-level stats are impressive enough on their own; he recorded a 4.13 ERA and 3.87 FIP in 61.0 innings in Boston this past season, walking just 6.6% of hitters on his way to 1.0 fWAR. And though he doesn't generate a lot of strikeouts or whiffs, he was a brilliant contact manager, finishing in the 75th percentile in barrel rate allowed and the 78th percentile in ground-ball rate.

That's attributable to a deep, six-pitch arsenal that's far more advanced than other rookie hurlers. Four of his offerings (his curveball, sweeper, splitter, and sinker) yielded xwOBA's below .300 from opposing batters, and even his two primary pitches (his four-seam fastball and slider) showed impressive shape and spin.

Dobbins also has more strikeout ability in him, as his fastball averaged 95.5 mph and his movement profile is diverse. Perhaps by tightening a few screws, he can emerge as more than just a pure contact manager.

There should be some fun competition for the last few rotation spots in St. Louis once Dobbins is healthy, though he should be considered a lock given his talents and his five remaining years of team control. His potential is considerable, and it's clear Bloom wanted another chance to work with him years after originally selecting him in the draft.