How would this offseason differ if the Cardinals planned to compete in 2025?

Trade for: RHP Pete Fairbanks (31, TB)

Giving up assets for relievers is usually not something I like doing as bullpens can usually be pieced together with some combination of low-cost veterans and minor league arms. However, with how the Cardinals decided to use the bullpen last year, mostly the overuse of Andrew Kittredge and JoJo Romero, an established power arm would be a welcomed addition to the team. With Kittredge and his 74 appearances moving along elsewhere, there is a big hole in the bullpen that needs to be filled.

Fairbanks has seen time in the majors in each of the past six seasons, going from a middling reliever with Texas and Tampa Bay in 2019 before fully establishing himself as a shutdown arm in the shortened 2020 season. That season saw the former 9th-round pick pitch in 27 games and assert his dominance as a late-inning power arm. In his 26 innings, Fairbanks struck out an outstanding 33.3% of hitters relying on heavy use of his 97 mph fastball and nasty hard slider. A true two-pitch pitcher, Fairbanks only gave up two home runs to go along with his 13.2 K/9. A knock against Fairbanks is that he was on the injured list at two separate times during the year, each time for his right shoulder.

The balky shoulder cost Fairbanks the beginning of the 2022 season before he finally made his return in mid-July. His initial results were fine as he threw five innings that month and notched six strikeouts. The rest of the season saw Fairbanks' numbers improve as he got stronger. He ramped his fastball up to 99mph on average and he did not give up a run in his final 19 innings of the year. During this time, Fairbanks totaled an astounding 32 strikeouts and three walks, good for a 43.7% strikeout rate

2023 saw more of the same from Fairbanks as he entered the year as the Rays' primary closer. He continued his late-season success and kept his scoreless streak intact until May when injuries struck again. A forearm strain sidelined Fairbanks for just over two weeks before a late-May hip injury sidelined him until mid-June. From then on, however, Fairbanks was back to his dominant self, making 31 appearances in the season's final three months. In those outings, Fairbanks picked up 16 saves and kept his outstanding strikeout rate, punching out 51 hitters over his last 28 innings.

Being a full year away from his shoulder concerns, Fairbanks again came to Tampa in 2024 looking like the front-runner for the closing gig. However, a rough start to April (10.50 ERA in 7 games, 3 saves) that saw command issues pop up caused some concern for the Rays. In late April, Fairbanks was placed on the 15-day injured list due to a nerve issue and made his return to the big league roster in mid-May. After his return, he worked his way back into the closer role and notched 14 saves with a sub-3 ERA. His strikeout rate, while still high, did not reach his 2023 levels after his return. The rest of the year saw Fairbanks continue as the Rays' closer and he finished the 2024 season with 23 saves in 45.1 innings. While that inning total matched his 2023 season, his strikeouts dropped to 44 along with a 2mph decrease in fastball velocity.

Overall, Fairbanks is still young and will play the 2025 season as a 31-year-old with a track record of success albeit with an injury history. The cost-cutting Rays are always seen as a trade partner and Fairbanks is slated to make $3.67 million this year before a 2026 club option worth $7 million. A reliever with Fairbanks' profile may be in high demand and receive some major-league-ready talent in return.

Of course, the 2025 Cardinals will not be key suitors for any of these players as John Mozeliak's comments towards cost-cutting and resetting all but ensure a tough year for the team. If the team could have gotten close to preseason projections from the previous two seasons, moves like these could be the ones that put them in a spot for an extended playoff run.

Honorable mentions: Sign RHP Nathan Eovaldi, trade for 1B Nathaniel Lowe