How would this offseason differ if the Cardinals planned to compete in 2025?

In what has become abundantly clear the further through the 2024 season to at this point in December, the St. Louis Cardinals are moving to a transition period. The offseason started with news allowing former MVP Paul Goldschmidt and stable rotation arm Kyle Gibson to test free agency while dangling third baseman Nolan Arenado and All-MLB closer Ryan Helsley in trade talks.

Now what if the past two seasons did not bring to light past organization malpractice and lack of minor league development and the Cardinals were back in playoff contention. First, let's look at how the current roster may differ while exploring potential free agents and trade chips that could fortify the team for an October run.

What would the current roster look like? Arenado, Helsey, and Gibson stay aboard.

It is not very often that players with pedigrees like Paul Goldschmidt and Nolan Arenado mutually agree with their team that a change of scenery might be best at this point in their career.

With the 2025 Cardinals, the decision to let Goldschmidt walk makes sense as his contract expired heading into this offseason as he was coming off back-to-back underwhelming seasons after his 2022 MVP year. Overall, Goldschmidt's Cardinal career should be seen as an overwhelming success despite the team's lack of titles.

Actively seeking out a trade partner to escape the remaining money on Nolan Arenado's contract is not something I would have anticipated after the initial trade. Arenado has always seemed like the perfect fit for St. Louis and was what the team expected when they traded for him heading into the 2021 season. As with Goldschmidt, two consecutive mediocre seasons by Arenado's standards paired with the Cardinals' inability to push for a division title has made Arenado expendable. If the Cardinals were expecting to compete for the playoffs in 2025, it would be hard to argue that the team would be better without someone like him on the roster.

Even with the downturn in his production, he still posted his second-highest batting average with the Cardinals albeit with disappearing power. Of course, Arenado's glove provides more value than your typical third baseman, and the soon-to-be 34-year-old actually improved in 2024 compared to his below-average previous season at the hot corner. If Arenado is able to tap back into his power and get his walk rate back up to his career average, his $21 million salary in 2025 might not be as bad as it currently appears.

Ryan Helsley's status as a lockdown closer was affirmed with an otherworldly 2024 season, that saw him tally a team-record 49 saves en route to a 3.0 bWAR and the NL Reliever of the Year award. As the team is currently sitting, an all-world closer's best value is on the trade market. However, as seen by teams with past postseason success, having a trusted bullpen allows for a creative use of arms in October. Helsley is under team control via arbitration for the 2025 season at an estimated $8.1 million, a deal for a closer of his profile. If the Cardinals were to keep Helsley for a playoff run in 2025 but the team underperformed again, there would still be the opportunity to ship him out to a contender as a half-year rental.

Even though it was pretty much guaranteed that Kyle Gibson's 2025 option would not be picked up in favor of a buyout by the end of the season, I have been extremely against this cost-cutting move. Now, with the contracts that have been given to arms like Frankie Montas and Matthew Boyd, this is one I think the Cardinals may regret, regardless of their 2025 competition plans. Gibson did exactly what he was expected to do during his time with the Cardinals, compiling an 8-8 record while making 30 starts leading to a 4.24 ERA and showing an increased strikeout rate. With the 2025 rotation having some holes behind starters Sonny Gray and Andre Pallante, quality innings may be tough to come by as the team is currently set up. Gibson was only owed $13 million in 2025 and with teams seemingly overpaying on pitching, Gibson could have been a steal next season or a valuable trade piece if things were to go south again.

With Arenado and Gibson remaining on the 2025 roster in this scenario, the list below includes players who are available as free agents or trade chips that could have pushed the Cardinals into contention for an October playoff run.