How the Cardinals have allowed sunk cost fallacy to wrongfully guide decision-making

The St. Louis Cardinals fell to below .500 for the first time in 2025 after a weekend sweep at the hands of the Boston Red Sox. With each game of the series, the Cardinals' performance went from bad, to frustrating, to outright embarrassing.

On Friday, the Cardinals lost 13-9 due to a bad start from Erick Fedde and the bullpen's inability to hold a lead. During the first game of their doubleheader on Sunday, the bullpen once again leaked the lead, with closer Ryan Helsley and last season's breakout reliever Ryan Fernandez shutting down when the lights were brightest.

But then Sunday Night Baseball came around hours later, and one of the Cardinals' most glaring issues from the last few years reared its ugly head as Miles Mikolas served up an awful outing in front of a national audience.

The Cardinals have allowed sunk cost fallacy to compound poor decisions for far too long.

Most of us knew that no matter how frustrating it was, Miles Mikolas was going to be in the Cardinals rotation this year barring an injury. We didn't have to like it, but we knew that's how the Cardinals would operate. And the fact that we know the Cardinals won't move off of a bad contract in favor of promising young arms is where the problem lies.

Whether you call this a reset or a transition year, players like Michael McGreevy, Quinn Mathews, Andre Pallante, Matthew Liberatore, and other young arms' development and opportunities matter even more than they normally would. Of course, the Cardinals want to win, but you also need to know what you have in your young arms, and let's be honest — Miles Mikolas is not increasing your team's chances of winning.

Since the Cardinals awarded Mikolas with a head-scratching extension during spring training in 2023 (mind you, they could have let him play out the final year of his contract before doing this), Mikolas has been one of the least effective starting pitchers in baseball, outside of innings if you fancy that.

Mikolas boasts an 11.25 ERA while giving the Cardinals just eight innings in his first two starts of 2025. After last night's disaster of a start, Mikolas now sports a 5.17 ERA in 69 starts since the 2023 season began. And if you want to compare him to his contemporaries over that time, it gets pretty ugly.

Since 2023, Mikolas has the worst K% in baseball (16.2%) and ranks in the top 10 worst pitchers in baseball in HR/9, BAA, WHIP, FIP, and of course, ERA. There's no reason for a pitcher like Mikolas to continue to be in a major league rotation right now when other young options are ready to shine, but alas, "the contract plays."

The Cardinals will tell you that they need these veteran arms to ensure they can cover innings throughout the year. Okay, well that's why they have Sonny Gray, Erick Fedde, and Steven Matz around. Between those three, Pallante, McGreevy, Liberatore, Mathews, and even names like Gordon Graceffo, Roddery Munoz, Sem Robberse, Tekoah Roby, and Zack Thompson on the 40-man roster alone, they have plenty of depth to turn to.

If Mikolas is blowing up in starts like he has the last few years, then let's be honest with ourselves: It can't get much worse with the young guys. And if for some reason the Cardinals do find themselves having to start their ninth or tenth options organizationally for sustained stretches, well, I'm guessing the year was going to go poorly regardless of if Mikolas was around.

Oh, and you know, they can always sign a veteran later on if need be. Kyle Gibson signed for just $5.25 million at the end of spring training. Surely there will be plenty of starters available for $5 million or less throughout the year if the Cardinals need someone to just give them innings as the year goes on.

Under John Mozeliak's leadership in recent years, it's not just Mikolas who has received this extended run. The Dexter Fowler experiment was a poor decision from the moment the ink dried, and they allowed his contract to prevent them from going after someone like Bryce Harper or upgrading in another fashion. Paul DeJong continued to get opportunities at shortstop even when he was clearly lost at the plate. And honestly, I blocked out of my memory prior to writing this the fact the Cardinals let Brett Cecil appear in 40 games in 2018 when he had a 6.89 ERA. Wild!

The Cardinals are not the only team that does this, but it also doesn't mean they are right to do so. When it has become clear a contract was a terrible decision, rather than continuing to play said contract to "recoup value," the best thing you can do is cut bait. Because in the case of each of these players, the longer they stick around, the more negative value they produce for your team.

And the saddest part about this is that guys like Mikolas, Fowler, DeJong, and Cecil become the "bad guys" in the eyes of Cardinals fans. The fanbase turns on them and can't stand them for long periods of time when in reality, it's the organization they are truly frustrated by.

The prime example here is actually a different player from the ones I already listed. In April of 2019, fresh off of a top 10 finish in National League Most Valuable Player voting, Matt Carpenter received a two-year, $39 million extension from the Cardinals. Having been one of their best players for the last eight seasons, it made sense that the Cardinals wanted to keep him around, but at age 33, signing him to an extension before seeing how that season played out was an aggressive decision, to say the least.

Carpenter had a major down year in 2019, posting a .226/.334/.392 slash line in 129 games for St. Louis. Things spiraled downhill for Carpenter from there, as he slashed .203/.325/.346 over 910 plate appearances during his final three seasons with St. Louis, resulting in an atrocious 86 wRC+ and .671 OPS while the Cardinals continued to cling to hope that he'd turn things around.

By the end of his tenure with the Cardinals, fans had turned on him viciously. People were done watching Carpenter strikeout at the plate, and a once fan favorite and future Red Jacket recipient was booed and ridiculed by the fanbase day in and day out to end his first stint with St. Louis. Of course the player has the power to change that by playing better, but it is a shame that the organization's pride gets in the way of them ending these experiments before they get out of hand.

I don't expect the Cardinals to move on from Mikolas anytime soon, but they should. It's a travesty that fans are being put through this again, and hopefully, they'll come to their sense soon and do what is best for all parties involved.