How the Cardinals can build to compete in 2027 without mortgaging the future

The St. Louis Cardinals can build for the future while also investing in their chances to win in 2027.

These goals do not need to be mutually exclusive.

Yes, the Cardinals are right not to mortgage their future to improve their chances at the Wild Card next year, but as they team-build this offseason, they have what it takes to add some real pieces to this roster. And in doing so, they can help this young core experience a real run at October, and potentially even some postseason baseball, which can only help their next window of contention even more.

The Cardinals farm system is already loaded. That doesn't mean they should start cashing those chips in yet, but as they wait for more of that talent to debut, they don't need to keep tearing down their Major League roster to add talent. At this point, it makes far more sense to supplement this young core and see how far they can go while they await reinforcements.

There's real value in this club being in contention all year long and even getting to play in the postseason. For the last four seasons, the Cardinals have gone out with a whimper come September, and only a few players on their roster have any postseason experience. Getting their feet wet in a playoff race and October baseball will help the continued development of this core, as well as reveal just how far they are from being true contenders and what areas need improved to get there.

While the offseason is still a month away from officially beginning and a potential lockout pending, there's a lot that can change between now and spring training, but I wanted to take some time to look at how the Cardinals could approach their offseason in a way that greatly improves their chances of winning in 2027 while not taking away from the bigger goals Chaim Bloom has laid out for the organization long-term.

Extensions

After extending JJ Wetherholt during the season, this offseason seems like a great time to lock in another member of the core, but who?

Alec Burleson seems like the strongest candidate after leading MLB in RBIs this season.

Burleson has already made it clear he is interested in resigning with the Cardinals, so what's the number?

Burleson has two years of club control remaining, so he's not going to get a market-value deal on an extension, but he will get paid more than if he were signing it after his rookie year. Brent Rooker is an interesting comp, as he signed a five-year, $60 million deal with the Athletics after some big seasons at the plate and forewent his final years of team control and a few free agent years by signing that deal. Josh Naylor got a five-year, $92.5 million deal as a free agent with Seattle last offseason, but again, Burleson is two years away from that leverage.

I'll go on the higher end of things and say Burleson gets five years, $80 million, making about $8 million in year one of the deal. That may be aggressive, but I'd rather err on the side of more than say, "Look at all the Cardinals can do with this money," and underpay players in this scenario.

Jordan Walker is worth chatting with as well, though my guess is it will be difficult to find a number that both parties are comfortable with at this point.

Verdict: Sign Alec Burleson to an extension, explore a deal with Jordan Walker

Starting Rotation

The Cardinals' rotation last year was a near-top-10 unit in terms of production, and while some regression could be in store, they have a lot of big-league-ready arms who can provide solid innings for them, alongside a crop of prospects who could make an impact soon.

Right now, any of Kyle Leahy, Andre Pallante, Michael McGreevy, Quinn Mathews, Matthew Liberatore, Cooper Hjerpe, Gordon Graceffo, and Richard Fitts could be in their rotation come Opening Day. Prospects like Tekoah Roby, Mason Molina, Jurrangelo Cijntje, and Brycen Mautz could be options very quickly as well. And later in the year, we may even see Tanner Franklin or Liam Doyle debut.

This is where I think the Cardinals could capitalize on their depth by flipping a starter for an upgrade at third base, center field, or prospect capital, with Pallante making the most sense to shop around. Yes, he was great for them in 2026, but entering Year 2 of arbitration and two seasons away from hitting free agency, I just don't see the Cardinals handing him a contract beyond his team control with all of these young arms coming, so why not capitalize on his value now when he is more of a back-end starter?

Then, if the Cardinals did move Pallante, they could make more of an argument to replace him with a Dustin May-type free agent signing again, a veteran who can be in their rotation and either be moved at the deadline to create room for a young arm again or help them push for October.

Verdict: Trade Andre Pallante and sign a "Dustin May-type" in free agency

Bullpen

I don't think anyone would disagree that the Cardinals bullpen has the biggest immediate needs right now, and if this unit can be strengthened ahead of the 2027 season, it would really help the Cardinals' chances of competing.

The Cardinals called up saw various young arms establish themselves in the bullpen down the stretch, but the Cardinals could use a few established relievers to join them and fill late=inning roles.

Luckily for St. Louis, they should be able to accomplish that without paying huge money or handing out long-term deals. They can sign two relievers with real name power and not break the bank at all, and it would really help add talent to a group that very much needs it.

Verdict: Sign two significant relievers to one-year deals, take as many gambles on low-cost, potentially high-reward relievers

Lineup

The optimistic look at this lineup would be that JJ Wetherholt, Joshua Baez, and Leo Bernal all take steps forward in 2027, as they have big-league experience under their belt. Wetherholt more so in terms of his actual offensive output, and Bernal and Baez in terms of getting a full season of production from them. It's important to remember that both left field and catcher were positions the Cardinals did not get much offense from for most of the season prior to their debuts.

Ivan Herrera is also a major X-factor here, as he has a lot more in his bat than he showed this year, and could really help lift this lineup up with a better season. And maybe Year 2 of Jordan Walker's revival sees him post an OPS near the mid-.800s over a full season. Maybe Masyn Winn gets closer to league average at the plate, or Thomas Saggese parlays his strong finish to help improve their third base spot? Rainiel Rodriguez or Jesus Baez could come improve that soon too.

If these things happen, the Cardinals can actually field a much stronger lineup in 2027 without major additions, and considering how this year's free agency looks, I'm not sure where they'd actually be able to find a stopgap option worth pursuing.

While I'd love to see the Cardinals upgrade their offense, it seems far more realistic to me for them to direct those resources to a starter and bullpen help than to overpay for a slight upgrade to third base or center field.

Verdict: Likely stand pat. Explore free agency/trades for 3B and/or CF to see if an opportunity arises

Example roster construction/payroll

Rotation:
1. RHP Kyle Leahy
2. FA like RHPs Dustin May/Shane Bieber/Freddy Peralta/Zac Gallen
3. RHP Michael McGreevy
4. LHP Quinn Mathews
5. LHP Matthew Liberatore

Competition/Depth: Cooper Hjerpe and Richard Fitts

Potential prospect debuts: Jurrangelo Cijntje Tekoah Roby, Mason Molina, Tanner Franklin, and Liam Doyle

Losing Pallante would hurt, but the prospect return can continue to help the Cardinals load up on their farm system while replacing his production with a free agent or internally developed arm. Overall, this has the makings of a solid unit that could peak toward the end of the year as more of their young arms debut.

Bullpen:
RHP Riley O'Brien
LHP FA (JoJo Romero, Alex Vesia, José Alvarado, etc.)
RHP FA (Pete Fairbanks, Evan Phillips, etc.)
RHP Cade Winquest
RHP Gordon Graceffo
RHP Luis Gastelum
LHP Justin Bruihl
RHP George Soriano

Depth: Brycen Mautz, Chase Hampton, Hancel Rincon, Ryan Fernandez, lottery ticket RPs, SPs who don't make the rotation

Potential prospect debuts: Sandro Santana, Randel Clemente

This bullpen already looks a whole lot more interesting than last year's group. Adding two established relievers to the back of the bullpen takes a lot of pressure off the group that is returning. There's also more optionality with this group, as the proposed eight-man group has three arms with option years (Graceffo, Winquest, and Gastelum) as well as two arms they could DFA if needed (Soriano and Bruihl)

Their depth options are also intriguing, and if they can sprinkle in some lottery-ticket arms on minor league deals or waivers, they might strike gold with one of them along the way as well. Plus, the Cardinals will likely run into a position where they'll need to move starting options to the bullpen, like a Liberatore or Hjerpe, and that could strengthen the group as well. And don't discount the potential impact of a Sandro Santana or Randel Clemente type later in the season.

Frankly, upgrading this group could provide the Cardinals with a lot of improvement next season.

Lineup
1. 2B JJ Wetherholt
2. DH Ivan Herrera
3. 1B Alec Burleson
4. RF Jordan Walker
5. C Leo Bernal
6. LF Joshua Baez
7. 3B Thomas Saggese/Blaze Jordan
8. CF Nathan Church/Everson Pereira
9. SS Masyn Winn

Depth: Jimmy Crooks, Pedro Pages, Jose Fermin, Bryan Torres

Potential prospect debuts: Rainiel Rodriguez, Jesus Baez, Tai Peete, and Josiah Ragsdale

When healthy, the top six of that lineup look a whole lot stronger on paper than what the Cardinals were working with on Opening Day this past year.

Yes, I'd love to see them upgrade at third base and/or center field, and if there ends up being a free agent who makes a lot of sense, or a trade option materializes on the market, go for it. But for now, this lineup seems strong enough to roll out on Opening Day and feel good about the offense, with potential impact bats coming from the farm system as the year goes on.

Estimated Payroll

Guaranteed Contracts: FA starter ($17m), FA RPs ($10m and $8m), Alec Burleson ($8m), JJ Wetherholt ($2.75m),

Estimated Arbitration: $16.68m (Year 2: Liberatore, Year 1: Walker, Herrera, Winn, Pages, and Leahy)

Pre-arbitration: $7.8m

Money owed for Nolan Arenado, Sonny Gray, and Ramon Urias: $16.25m

Other payments, player benefits, pre-arb bonus pool, 40-man roster salaries: $29.7 million

Total: ~$116.2m luxury tax payroll

In 2026, the Cardinals paid out a total of $56.17 million toward the contracts of Nolan Arenado, Sonny Gray, Willson Contreras, Dustin May, JoJo Romero, and Lars Nootbaar (the latter three before trading them). That was over half of their payroll for the season.

The Cardinals still owe $16.25 million for Arenado and Gray, as well as a buyout of Ramon Urias, but that still gives them an extra $39.92 million to play with from last year's budget, and that's not including the around $9.44 million I have them freeing up by trading Andre Pallante and non-tendering Nolan Gorman.

This is why they have the financial flexibility to extend Burleson, sign two significant relievers, and add a veteran starting pitcher without really raising their payroll by much at all. I'm not at all saying they shouldn't push even harder, but I want to illustrate how it's not unrealistic to expect them to use that added payroll flexibility to upgrade this roster, and how it doesn't actually mortgage the future.

Last offseason, Chaim Bloom nailed it by absorbing money, specifically on the Gray and Contreras trades, in order to increase the prospect capital they got in return. This has panned out in a big way, and now they can use that money toward acquiring talent on short-term deals that can fill holes on the roster while they await young talent to blossom and take over those spots.

I know the Cardinals don't want to overpromise and underdeliver next year, but it would behoove them to make some investments from outside the organization this offseason to supplement this rebuild. I'm not suggesting they could make a huge splash in free agency or trade prospects to acquire a fixture, I'm saying they can spend a bit of money to get quality stopgap options as they wait for more young talent to blossom before really investing in this team.

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