Hard-luck numbers place JJ Wetherholt's first Cardinals season into perspective

What was supposed to be a horrific season for the St. Louis Cardinals, a team in the midst of a complete rebuild, ended up a satisfactory one when compared with expectations. One major reason for that overperformance was rookie second baseman JJ Wetherholt. Cardinals fans had high expectations for the 2024 first-round pick, and he didn't disappoint. For those fearing that Wetherholt will endure a subsequent sophomore slump, RotoWire has some numbers that might perk them up.

Wetherholt hit .242 with a .704 OPS in 2026, which are respectable offensive numbers. But according to RotoWire's "luck gap," Wetherholt was the fourth-unluckiest hitter in all of baseball. Cardinals fans could attest to the numbers, as he often made flush contact with the ball only for it to find a glove. Power was where Wetherholt experienced the most misfortune, as his slugging percentage of .365 was 70 points lower than his expected slugging percentage.

Much of that slugging discrepancy can likely be blamed on the ballpark Wetherholt now calls home. Busch Stadium was the most difficult stadium in which to hit home runs in 2026, and with President of Baseball Operations Chaim Bloom having no plans to bring in the fences, it appears that it will remain that way for the foreseeable future.

But power isn't Wetherholt's main calling card, so even if some of that is hindered in St. Louis, he should still prove himself to be an above-average hitter who reaches base at a strong clip because of his high walk rate. Wetherholt also battled a wrist injury late in the year that sapped some of his production, and after the Cardinals reinstated him from the injured list in mid-September, he looked much more like the Wetherholt that fans saw in the first half.

A healthy Wetherholt should see his fortunes turn next season

Because Wetherholt still posted slightly above-league-average offensive numbers while being among the unluckiest hitters in the league, Cardinals fans should be excited about what kind of production he could provide next year. With one full season under his belt and expsoure to the grind of a 162-game marathon, Wetherholt should be locked at the top of the Cardinals lineup for the next season and many more to come.

Defensively, Wetherholt was the best second baseman in the league by nearly all metrics. He was billed as a solid but not spectacular defender prior to his debut, but he eclipsed even the wildest of expectations on that side of the ball. Defense rarely slumps, so by proving himself to be a top-tier fielder at the keystone, Wetherholt has already solved half of the puzzle of being a standout everyday player.

Although Wetherholt is unlikely to win the Rookie of the Year Award that many were clamoring for earlier in the season, his debut was still a smashing success. In the Cardinals' latest press conference, Bloom tried to pump the brakes on the Cardinals' hopes of competing in 2027, but if Wetherholt proves that he's truly arrived, St. Louis might just drag Bloom into the postseason anyway.

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