Former Cardinals top prospect displays worrisome metrics in first spring outing

There is an adage across spring training that posits that spring statistics don't really matter. While that is largely true for most players, there are some players who do need to see positive results in both counting stats and underlying metrics.

For Tink Hence, growth this spring was imperative.

Hence, now 23 years old, was added to the St. Louis Cardinals 40-man roster two years ago on November 19, 2024. Hence's inclusion on the 40-man roster was to protect the former top prospect in the Rule 5 Draft. While he hadn't proven health up to that point, his electric stuff and promise made him an appealing prospect.

Tink's 2025 season did little to assuage any worries about his health and his performance. He threw only 21.1 innings last year between Low-A Palm Beach, High-A Peoria, and Double-A Springfield. He posted a 2.95 ERA and had a 27.9% strikeout rate, but he missed most of the season. He now enters 2026 in a make-or-break way, and that includes his showing in spring.

Former St. Louis Cardinals top prospect Tink Hence displays worrisome metrics in his first spring training outing.

Tink Hence came in as a reliever in the Cardinals' game Tuesday night against the Washington Nationals in the fifth inning. He threw just one inning, allowing one hit and striking out one batter. From a pure stat line perspective, this was a fine appearance for Hence as he looks to rebuild his stock in the organization.

A look underneath the hood, however, shows many concerning metrics.

Hence's fastball averaged just 94.5 MPH, a 1.5 MPH drop from his peak in 2022. His extension on his fastball was just six feet, a decrease of six inches from 2022. His fastball generated just 15.1 inches of induced vertical break in the outing, but it averaged 16.1" of IVB in 2022. The underlying stats on his fastball have fallen across the board since his peak season in 2022. The pitch that was once his calling card after his changeup is a shell of its former self.

It's important to note here that Hence threw only 13 pitches in his first appearance this spring. There's a probability that all of these metrics could revert back to his norms from his peak years as a prospect. However, the 2026 season is an important one for Hence as he tries to crack the major league roster for St. Louis.

Hence has gone from a bona fide starting pitching prospect to a guy who could find himself relegated to the bullpen to maintain health and boost his stuff. If he continues to falter, he could fall off and be passed up by several other pitchers on the depth chart.

If he doesn't show growth or improvement this year, Tink Hence could hear his name mentioned with Alex Reyes, Marco Gonzales, and Luke Weaver as some of the most disappointing Cardinals prospects recently.

There's still plenty of time for Tink Hence to boost his fastball while he ramps up this spring. He'll continue to make regular appearances for the Cardinals this spring. He'll certainly be a player to watch down in Jupiter this year.