Former Cardinals outfielder shines a light on baseball metrics' shortcomings

The baseball analytics revolution continues to hurtle forward at a breakneck pace. From its introduction to a wider audience in "Moneyball" to the advent of Statcast in 2015, it feels as though there is no end to the competition among baseball teams to find the next statistic that will turn the sport on its head.

But instead of a number-crunching executive searching an edge, a two-time member of the St. Louis Cardinals is taking it on himself to propose new data and statistics that would help fans and analysts more accurately judge players.

Welcome to "PhamGraphs."

Tommy Pham holds some novel ideas of how to improve analytics throughout baseball.

Pham has long considered himself a student of the game, and as such, he frequently delves into Statcast and FanGraphs. He spoke with Will Sammon and Eno Sarris of The Athletic (subscription required) and proposed a few additions to how advanced metrics are calculated.

One of Pham's ideas centered on the thought that playing for a less successful team hurts batters' stats because they more often face teams' more skilled relief pitchers who are looking to seal a win for their club. By contrast, teams that win more frequently would have a tendency to face mop-up relievers or even position players on the mound if a game gets lopsided in that team's favor. This was especially true with Pham's squad in 2025, the Pittsburgh Pirates, who possessed a strong pitching staff but a moribund offense, leading to several tight games where an opponent would logically trot out its best bullpen arms.

Another facet of the "quality of opposition" stat that Pham pitched is the strength of batting lineups. From Pham's perspective, stronger hitters tend to force opposing pitchers to work harder, and he theorized that this leads to more optimal results for the next hitter since the pitcher could be more fatigued.

Baseball Prospectus' DRC+ and Baseball-Reference's OPS+ stats do take quality of opponents into account when determining a player's statistics, but FanGraphs leaves out this number. But while one of Pham's statistical ideas already exists to a certain degree, another of his propositions is less settled in analytics circles.

Defensive skills have historically been harder to quantify. Plenty of fielding metrics exist, but players' numbers often vary widely between different sites' preferred stats. One factor that Pham believes baseball needs to take into account is wind. If the wind is strong or swirling, it will naturally be harder to catch a fly ball and judge the position one needs to be in to take an optimal route. Although there is no widely recongized stat that takes wind into account, the Weather Applied Metrics company has helped teams and analysts by figuring out how much wind factored into a home run. Perhaps its use can be expanded to include fly balls as well.

Pham's uniquely analytical bend among baseball players could eventually help his peers in arbitration cases, where teams try to downplay players' accomplishments in order to pay them a lower salary. If Pham's philosophies gain traction, players who specialize in defense could be seen in a better light and those on poor teams could more accurately point to how their matchups affected their stats.

Speaking of struggling teams, PhamGraphs' data could suggest that some Cardinals hitters might be in for a down year. Not only would the standard strategy of pitching around threats in the lineup apply because there are fewer skilled bats in the lineup around them, but hitters on a team that is unlikely to contend in 2025 are likely to face better pitchers who look to close out a victory. If the Cardinals rotation improves from last season, this could be especially true, as the team will hope to keep games tighter, much as the Pirates did last season.

PhamGraphs is a groundbreaking look at how players can contribute to analytics with their unique perspective from playing the game at the highest level. Although Pham is a polarizing figure in baseball with his fiery demeanor and unscrupulous honesty, there is no doubt that the sabermetric community is richer for having him around the game.