Forget Arenado: Bregman’s deal tightens market, boosts Donovan’s value for Cardinals

The Chicago Cubs made a big winter splash by signing Alex Bregman to a five-year, $175 million deal, instantly giving their lineup a middle-order anchor and their fanbase a jolt of optimism. Predictably, the reaction in St. Louis was immediate: Does this speed up a Nolan Arenado trade? 

The short answer is no — and the long answer is still no. This move actually has very little impact on his market.

Despite the noise you will hear over the next few days, Bregman’s arrival on the North Side has almost nothing to do with Arenado’s future in St. Louis. Arenado’s trade value has been declining for two seasons, and front offices across baseball know exactly what he is at this stage: a still useful but aging corner infielder with diminishing power, a rising strikeout rate, and a contract that only makes sense for a contender with a very specific need. He was never a centerpiece trade chip for the Cardinals. At best, he was a backup option for teams that struck out elsewhere.

That hasn’t changed. Bregman doesn’t suddenly make Arenado more attractive, more valuable, or more likely to move. If anything, it reinforces what the Cardinals already understood: Arenado is not the lever that reshapes their long-term roster. He’s a veteran presence who stays unless a perfect deal materializes — and perfect deals rarely materialize for declining 34-year-old corner infielders.

But while Bregman’s signing doesn’t affect Arenado’s value, it absolutely reshapes another one: the Brendan Donovan trade market.

This is where the Cardinals quietly benefit.

With Bregman off the board, the infield market tightened instantly. Teams that were waiting to see where the top third base bat landed now have to pivot. The free agent infield class is thin. The second base market has already moved with Brandon Lowe traded and Ketel Marte off the market. Clubs that need a Gold Glove, left-handed contact bat with versatility suddenly have fewer places to look.

And that funnels attention straight toward Donovan.

The Cubs’ signing of Bregman removes them from the market for other bats, which pushes more teams toward trade options. The Mariners, Giants, Royals, Blue Jays, Yankees, and Mets all profile as clubs that could circle back on Donovan depending on how their own offseasons unfold. Donovan’s two years of control, defensive flexibility, and elite on-base skills make him one of the most attractive infield trade pieces available.

The Cardinals have been clear: They’re not giving him away. They want two top prospects or equivalent value. Before Bregman signed, that price felt steep to some teams. After Bregman signed, it suddenly feels more realistic.

This is the real impact of the Cubs’ move. It’s now about having more leverage.

The Cardinals now sit in a stronger position to extract greater value for Donovan, and they can afford to wait for the right offer. Bregman’s deal didn’t change the Cardinals’ plans — it simply made the market bend a little more in their favor.

For a team trying to rebuild smartly rather than loudly, that’s exactly the kind of shift they needed.