Yes, the St. Louis Cardinals are unlikely to make any big swings this offseason. But we also need to recognize that they have positioned themselves to have ultimate flexibility heading into one of the most uncertain offseasons in Major League Baseball history, and depending on how things play out, they could certainly pounce on some unique opportunities. And the Los Angeles Dodgers may be the prime example of that.
After being swept by the Milwaukee Brewers in the National League Championship Series, the Dodgers were unable to complete their quest for a three-peat and enter the offseason with the second-oldest roster in all of baseball and by far the largest payroll commitments. Sure, a bit of money is coming off the books, but the Dodgers are locked into a whole lot of long-term deals right now.
With that, they need to make way for young prospects like Josue De Paula, Mike Sirota, and other bats to make their debuts, and I'm sure they'd love to find a way to re-sign Tarik Skubal. There are a ton of question marks they have to answer, and the Cardinals could benefit from that.
If the Dodgers blow up their roster, the Cardinals could pounce
Again, it obviously depends on what the new collective bargaining agreement looks like and how the Dodgers want to move forward, but there is certainly a world where they make some pretty valuable players available via trade.
Tyler Glasnow has one more year at $30 million dollars on his deal before a player option of just $21 million in 2028. The Cardinals were one of the teams that pursued trading for Glasnow before he was dealt to the Dodgers, and Chaim Bloom was in Tampa Bay when they first acquired Glasnow. Even if the Dodgers spend a lot of money on that deal, they aren't likely to get a ton in return because of his injury history and lack of control.
Blake Snell has three more seasons at $36 million left on his deal, and while the Brewers got to him in the seventh inning of his start in Game 3, he did post a 1.90 ERA in nine starts during the regular season while striking out 31.8% of the batters he faced. Again, no one is going to move big-time prospects for that kind of money and injury history, but the Dodgers can sweeten the pot enough to make the deal more digestible, or honestly, the Cardinals have the financial flexibility to bring a lot of that deal in and give up virtually no prospects. I'd rather see that number go down a fair bit, but again, it's worth looking at if the Dodgers are interested.
And then there's the other side of this. If the Dodgers are going to improve their club, no matter what happens with the CBA, it's going to be difficult for them to just throw even more money at their team. Prospect promotions will go a long way, but maybe they'll look into trading for some cost-controlled talent along the way. Maybe they'd like to target a young Cardinal to fill a void after they move on from a highly priced member of their roster?
I put the odds of that kind of deal happening very low, mostly because there are a lot of things that have to break right for it to happen, but it's interesting to consider nonetheless. Think about the Diamondbacks and the value they got from a broken-down Nolan Arenado this year. They only paid him $5 million this season and are only on the hook for $6 million next season because of money the Cardinals are sending them. What if the Cardinals could get a Glasnow or Snell for only $10 million to $20 million in 2027 and/or beyond? That makes acquiring a player at those ages with those injury histories make way more sense.
But many other teams could make that same argument, and likely would be more aggressive in making a move with their title windows being closer. I won't underestimate the Cardinals' creativity as we head into this next offseason though, as I could see this group exploring moves that are not on anyone's radar right now if it benefits their future.
