Drafted, developed, and blocked: Cardinals’ dilemma with high-floor prospects

It’s no secret that the St. Louis Cardinals want to get younger. They just traded two players aged 33 and 36 for five players with ages from 19 to 26. What ages should the Cardinals be targeting?

When we see players like Paul Skenes (21), Jackson Merrill (20), and Roman Anthony (21) make their initial starts and succeed at a high level, it seems like that should be something the Cardinals should achieve. However, that is not normal.

In 2025, 178 players aged 25 or younger made their Major League Baseball debut. This group represented the vast majority (approximately 76%) of the 234 total players who debuted during the season. According to MLB, the average age for a debut was 25. 

Key Trends

Age-20 "Efficiency": Although only 4 players were called up at age 20, the success rate for finding a star was the highest at 25%. This is because teams only promote 20-year-olds if they are generational talents, such as Samuel Basallo (Orioles), who produced a 2.1 WAR in a limited debut window.

Age-22 "Power": This age group contained the most players (58) and produced the highest average WAR (0.58). This was bolstered by Nick Kurtz (Athletics), whose 5.4 WAR was the highest of any debutant in the 2025 season.

Age-21 "High-Ceiling": With a 12.9% star rate, the 21-year-old class was led by Roman Anthony (Red Sox), who posted a 3.1 WAR despite missing time due to injury.

Age-25 "Resilience": The 7.7% star rate for 25-year-olds was driven by polished college pitchers like Noah Cameron (Royals), who stepped directly into a rotation anchor role and finished with a 3.8 WAR.

The data shows that players who debut at 22 or younger are more likely to be "high-ceiling" prospects tracked for stardom. Players debuting at 24 or 25 are often "high-floor" depth players or relievers who provide steady but lower-volume value, making it harder for them to reach the cumulative 2.0 WAR mark in their first year.

When comparing the St. Louis Cardinals over the last three years (2023–2025) to the broader 2025 MLB trend, a distinct organizational pattern emerges. While the league trends toward immediate stardom for 21- and 22-year-olds, the Cardinals have leaned more heavily into "high-floor" older depth pieces 

Note: Masyn Winn’s debut was in 2021 when he was 21. That year, playing in 37 games, his WAR was -.06. He took a huge jump the following year, and his WAR was 4.9.

So, the new Cardinal model is to develop 22 and 23-year-old players who have a high ceiling that can be a productive part of the major league club. 

One thing that is obvious is that at age 25, your chances of becoming a star player in MLB diminish. With the Cardinals going through a complete overhaul, the chances are going to be even less for those players to become a meaningful part of the roster. Who are those players, and what are their chances? 

Here are the Cardinals’ prospects who rank in the top 30 and will be over 25 at or near the All-Star game on 7/14/2026.