Digging into Matthew Liberatore's journey from Opening Day starter to Cardinals rotation depth

It's hard to believe, but Matthew Liberatore has now spent as many years at the major-league level (five) as he did a top-100 prospect according to Baseball America. Long considered one of the best left-handed pitchers in the minor leagues, the 26-year-old simply hasn't been able to fully put it together for the St. Louis Cardinals.

That was never more true than 2026, when Liberatore set new career highs in workload (31 starts, 155 innings pitched) but took notable steps back in ERA (5.23), various ERA estimators (5.00 xERA, 4.62 FIP), and a number of important metrics like walk and chase rate. After betting big on him as the Opening Day starter this year, the Redbirds now need to question what the future holds for their imposing left-hander -- including whether or not that future involves moving him back to the bullpen.

Matthew Liberatore pitched himself out of the Cardinals' rotation in 2026

The good news about Liberatore's season is that he proved, without a doubt, that he can handle a starter's workload in the big leagues. Though he regularly crossed 100 innings during his top prospect days, he'd never done so just in the majors prior to 2025. Now, he's broken the 150-frame threshold in back-to-back seasons.

The problem is that he just doesn't really look like a starter beyond that. One of the most important things a starting pitcher can do is turn over a lineup multiple times in the same outing without getting blown up. This year, Liberatore allowed a .745 OPS to opposing hitters his first time through the order and a .786 OPS the second time through. In his third pass, batters obliterated him to the tune of a 1.077 OPS.

That's simply untenable, and a big reason for that performance was a sudden decline in quality from his favorite secondaries. Whereas in 2025 Liberatore's changeup (+7 run value) and slider (+3) were excellent non-fastballs, they combined for -4 run value in 2026. The loss of his off-speed pitch, in particular, crushed him against right-handed hitters; their OPS against Liberatore jumped from .730 last year to .802 this year.

Perhaps with an offseason dedicated to fixing his repertoire, he could become a serviceable back-end rotation option. There is genuine value in a pitcher who can eat innings at his volume and produce the occasional quality start, even if that's far below the ceiling we all once envisioned for him.

Alternatively, the Cardinals could look to trade Liberatore, who still has top-prospect pedigree and three years of team control remaining as a Super 2 player. But they'd undoubtedly be selling low on him, which isn't really the name of the game in Year 2 of Chaim Bloom's rebuild.

As such, expect him to still be in St. Louis once next season rolls around, likely in a different role than the one he's recently occupied.

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