Did the Cardinals mishandle their number one draft choice?

Jordan Walker was the top St. Louis Cardinals prospect in 2023. He ranked number four in all of baseball. Only Gunner Henderson, Corbin Carroll, and Francisco Alvarez had a brighter future. As of May 6th, his batting average is .198. 

Whispers of the next Albert Pujols began shortly after the Cardinals drafted Walker, partly because the Cardinals hadn’t had a genuine star come through the system for a long time. They had several talented players, but none with that "wow" factor — someone you watch play and just knew would be a perennial All-Star and the face of the franchise for years to come. After watching his rookie season, my comparison was more of a Willie McGee type. 

MLB scouts grade all prospects on a scale from 20 to 80. 50 is average. On defense, he graded as average for fielding, but his arm was elite, grading out at a 70. Of course, that was at third base. His speed was average, but his hitting graded out above average at 55. Where he really shined was his 65 grade for power. For comparison, scouts graded Aaron Judge’s power at 60. Soto was a 65. 

Evaluating his power, MLB said this: “The 6-foot-5 masher already showed elite exit velocities in his first taste of the minors. He maxed out at 116.2 mph in Low-A Southeast (a similar max to Juan Soto, Fernando Tatis Jr., and Javier Báez, among others, in 2021).

So, how can it be that this number-one draft pick can have a batting average of .198 and, even more puzzling, a slug of .274 when the average slug this year is .392?

Did the St. Louis Cardinals break Jordan Walker?

His first year in 2023, he had 465 plate appearances. Walker’s BA was .276 and his slug was .445. His WRC+ was 16 points over the average player. That impressive exit velo topped out at 114.3. Not bad. Factor in a 22% strikeout rate, with 16 home runs and 7 stolen bases, his first season indicated a very promising career ahead. 

The next year, on April 24th, the Cardinals sent him back to the minors. The reason? They wanted him to change his swing completely. Management decided that if he increased his launch angle, he could unlock all that power and become a great home run hitter. This is not a simple change. This is not "stand closer to the plate, try to hit more outside pitches to the opposite field"; this is to forget what got you here and totally change how you hit a tiny ball coming at you at 98 miles an hour. Oh, and by the way, get better at playing a new position at the same time. 

It’s no wonder that his hard-hit rate has gone from 35% in 2023 to 28% this year. Strikeouts from only 22% are now up to 30%. When swinging at a pitch inside the zone in 2023, Walker’s contact rate was above average. After having to think about the launch angle, his contact rate is now 2% below average. His WRC+ in 2023 was 116. Today it’s 54.  

After seeing such an elite talent like this struggle, it’s fair to ask why. Why, if scouts grade his power at 65 out of 70, didn’t the Cardinals feel like if they let him mature, the home runs would come? 

Did the Cardinals draft a player that had perennial All-Star potential and break him by trying to change the way he hits a ball at the same time learn a new position? With Nootbaar, Scott II, Burleson, Siani, and Donovan in the outfield now, and another number one pick, Chase Davis, waiting in the wings, it wouldn’t be surprising to see Walker sent back down again. I just hope this time it’s not to increase the launch angle, but to find the swing he lost.