Cubs’ latest playoff disappointment hints at a future the Cardinals can capitalize on

The best thing about the Chicago Cubs is that they do not operate like the premier team in the third-best market in the United States should, and that's giving the St. Louis Cardinals an even bigger opening to change the landscape of the National League Central in the near future.

There is no question that the Cubs are a better team than the Cardinals right now (though the St. Louis did just take the season series against Chicago this year), and while the Cubs have been a postseason team each of the past two seasons, it seems like their window may be closing much quicker than they thought it would.

Like the Cardinals this year, the Cubs were coming off four straight years of missing the postseason from 2021-2024 before snagging a Wild Card berth each of the last two seasons. Last year they were knocked out by the Milwaukee Brewers in the NLDS, and this year they were easily swept by the San Diego Padres in the Wild Card round. The Cubs have not made it to the NLCS since 2017, and don't forget, the Cardinals made it back in 2019.

I'm not trying to argue that the Cardinals have been more successful on the field as of late or that Cardinals fans should be doing any victory laps here, but I do want to point out how the Cubs seem to have squandered their window for contention, while the Cardinals look primed to take their place as the biggest challenger to the Milwaukee Brewers in the NL Central moving forward.

Cubs are fading as the Cardinals seem to be rising in MLB landscape

Sure, the Cubs have National League Most Valuable Player Pete Crow-Armstrong and a nice supporting cast, but they continue to show they can't get past other contenders in the National League, and there is a ton of roster turnover on the way for them without much in terms of young talent on the way.

Their farm system is the worst it has been in years, ranking 26th according to Baseball America and 28th according to MLB Pipeline, while the Cardinals rank second and fourth in all of baseball according to those same outlets.

When comparing their Major League rosters, yes, the Cubs are the better team today, but they have the fourth-oldest roster in baseball with many impending free agents and multiple aging players locked up on big, long-term deals that will likely have diminishing returns. The Cardinals, on the other hand, have the second-youngest roster in MLB and just one impending free agent in Ryne Stanek. The rest of their roster is young and under cost control moving forward.

Speaking of cost control, the Cardinals had the 25th-highest payroll in 2026, while the Cubs had the seventh-largest. The Cardinals figure to spend a lot more in the future to lock down their young core as well as supplement it with more prospects coming through the system and talent via free agency and trades. The Cubs have money to spend this offseason, but they'll have to do so in order to replace the talent they are losing and to find a way to also upgrade a roster that already wasn't good enough.

Believe it or not, the Cardinals actually had better starting pitching output than the Cubs in 2026, with St. Louis ranking just outside the top 10 rotations in MLB in ERA, FIP, and fWAR while the Cubs ranked among the bottom-five clubs. The Cardinals have their entire rotation under club control for next season, with a strong pitching pipeline expected to produce exciting young arms in the next two seasons, while the Cubs have to go and replace Kevin Gausman, Shota Imanaga, Clay Holmes, Matthew Boyd, and David Peterson, who are all hitting free agency, while other arms of theirs are nearing free agency.

This season, both the Cubs and Cardinals ranked among the worst teams in baseball in terms of fastball velocity, a stat that continues to coincide with the best pitching staffs in the game. The difference? The Cardinals have a plethora of prospects coming up with great stuff, while the Cubs do not have that same luxury. They are going to have to spend big in the free agent market to find that, something they have been unwilling to actually do in recent years.

The Cubs are in a tough spot looking ahead, while the Cardinals appear to just be getting started. Both clubs are looking up at the Brewers right now, a team that every team in baseball should be trying to learn from when it comes to player development and playing the game the right way. But as I look to the future, the Cubs seem to be fading when it comes to NL contention, while the Cardinals have a ton of momentum on their side.

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