Comparing the Cardinals' current roster to their division foes

Milwaukee Brewers

The 2024 preseason projections typically had the Brewers hovering at or below .500 and around a third-place finish in a tightly contested division. Somehow that team blew past all projections en route to their second consecutive division title and third in the past four years, notching 93 wins before the Mets knocked them out of the playoffs in the first round. While that team over-performed, is it fair to expect them to fall back to the mean after some notable losses?

Starting Rotation

A major part of their 2024 success came from unsung heroes out of their starting rotation. After shipping off Corbin Burnes and seeing co-ace Brandon Woodruff miss the season with a shoulder injury, the Brewers looked to build the staff around Freddy Peralta. The Brewers' decision-makers were clearly aware of this need and sent Devin Williams to the Yankees for lefty Nestor Cortes and prospect Caleb Durbin. Cortes adds a veteran arm to the rotation and, with the Cardinals' well-documented struggles against lefties with command, could be in for a strong year out of the AL East.

Peralta's season was above average as the righty went 11-9 with a 3.68 ERA (4.18 FIP) in almost 175 innings. He continued to show his dominant strikeout ability, punching out 200 hitters but also saw his walk and home run numbers increase. Going along with Peralta were arms who were mostly viewed as reclamation projects or lottery tickets.

Based on the performance of these players last year, the Brewers' front office should put their luck in the Wisconsin Lottery after the team saw names like Colin Rea, Aaron Civale, and Tobias Myers combine to go 27-15 and a near-3 ERA. While all of these pitchers are expected back with the team in 2025, it's hard to argue that the Brewers should expect similar results from this group. The team will see Woodruff return to the rotation, but the lengthy layoff and shoulder injury may limit his innings and effectiveness early in his return.

Bullpen

As with the Cardinals' bullpen, the Brewers had an elite closer with support from a no-name cast that provided quality results. Despite trading Josh Hader and seeing the team deteriorate after the move, the Brewers struck again trading Devin Williams to shore up the rotation. In Williams' absence from the back of the pen last year, 30-year-old castoff Trevor McGill tallied 21 saves but it will remain to be seen how the team will fill the new vacancy. Beyond McGill, they had 11 other players record saves last year so manager Pat Murphy has shown an ability to manage the bullpen.

The return that the Brewers received for the recent Williams deal may inspire the rest of the division with ace closers to ship or hold their current assets. While they did receive a major league-capable starter, the prospect return may not be what other teams further away from contention may desire.

Infield

While the infield in 2024 was a main piece of the success of the team, a lot of that performance came from Willy Adames, who has combined to hit 87 home runs and drive in 290 runs in his last three seasons. Luckily for the Cardinals and the rest of the division, the lower-market Brewers could not afford to keep the shortstop and will watch him play his next seven years in San Francisco to the tune of over $180 million.

To this point in the offseason, the Brewers have not yet addressed this hole in the roster. Current options include youngsters Joey Ortiz and Brice Turang, who each provide extreme defensive value but have some development to do on the offensive side. At first base, 2024 signing Rhys Hoskins was expected to provide pop and stability at the position but he struggled mightily in his first year back from ACL surgery.

Outside of the organization, the Brewers have at least expressed interest in Ha-Seong Kim, but his shoulder surgery may limit his ability to play shortstop in the early going of the 2025 campaign. They could also be seen as players in the trade market depending on which names become available after players find new homes in free agency. In the Williams deal, the Brewers did receive Caleb Durbin, ranked as the Yankees' 25th-best prospect. Durbin profiles as a nice utility infielder who has above-average contact ability but a lack of power.

The biggest difference-maker remaining with the organization falls to the Contreras brother who gets to stay behind the plate for the foreseeable future. William Contreras built on an already successful 2023 season with an even better past year. The younger brother played in 155 games and tallied a 129 OPS+ with 72 extra-base hits and 92 RBIs. Contreras' approach at the plate and quality defense netted him a 5th-place finish in the 2024 NL MVP award voting to go along with his All-Star appearance and Silver Slugger award.

Outfield

The Brewers' outfield was another group whose overall performance was carried by one player. Young phenom Jackson Chourio exploded at the major league level after early struggles and finished third in the aforementioned competitive Rookie of the Year race. In total, the 20-year-old hit .275 with 21 home runs and chipped in 22 stolen bases while playing quality corner outfield defense.

Veteran Christian Yelich got off to a blistering start to the year, knocking 26 extra-base hits and a 151 OPS+ before yet another back injury put him on the shelf and ended his season in late July. Ancillary pieces Blake Perkins and Sal Frelik filled the rest of the outfield but each provided below league average offensive output.

The return to health for Yelich and the continued development of Garrett Mitchell provides the Brewers with some excitement for the outfield.

Manager

After the rival Chicago Cubs stole Craig Counsell to be their manager, the Brewers tabbed long-time bench coach Pat Murphy to the head job. In what was seen to be a step back after losing Counsell, all Murphy did was nab 27 of the potential 30 potential first-place votes in the Manager of the Year voting.

With Murphy losing key pieces in Adames and having a patchwork rotation, it will be interesting to see how Murphy navigates his personnel in the Milwaukee market.