Cardinals' top prospect projected to have competition for 2026 Rookie of the Year

FanGraphs released Steamer projections for the 2025 season, and it appears that the NL Central has plenty to be excited about. In the estimated top 10 rookies by measure of wRC+, the division has four first-year players on the list. As expected, the St. Louis Cardinals have top prospect JJ Wetherholt among the game's best future stars.

Cardinals JJ Wetherholt has competition for the league's top rookie hitter.

The expectation is that Wetherholt will make his major league debut at the start of the regular season. St. Louis has not promised their former first-round pick a starting job, as the 23-year-old just finished his first full professional season since being drafted in 2024. Wetherholt was up to the test, hitting .306 over 109 games at Double-A and Triple-A last season and should have a shot at a starting job for the Cardinals. Until the team makes a move with one of their current players, what position he will play remains up for discussion.

No matter his position, the lefty hitter has shown an ability to be an above-average hitter at every stop of the minors. He put up a 152 wRC+ through both levels last season, and Steamer projects him to carry his success to the big leagues. The projection model has Wetherholt hitting .253 with a .722 OPS. In his first season, he is projected to hit 13 homers and swipe 12 stolen bases if he were to play in 142 games. Those stats might be seen as a letdown for Cardinals fans who have continued to get their hearts broken by failed prospects. The reality is, though, that his projected 106 wRC+ is ranked seventh among rookies and his 2.8 fWAR would be fourth on the Cardinals, showing that those numbers would still result in a productive rookie season.

Even with his hype train reaching full speed, the Steamer model actually ranks him as the third-best offensive rookie in the NL Central, with the division having four top-10 wRC+ rookie projections. Each player that Wetherholt finds himself behind, however, received a cup of coffee in the major leagues this past season. Cincinnati's Sal Stewart is the estimated top rookie, with a 115 wRC+, and he had a strong showing in 18 games with the Reds at the end of last season. Sitting in third place is division rival Moises Ballesteros of the Cubs. Over 20 games of part-time duty, the 21-year-old hit .298 with a 143 wRC+ and has always been seen as a bat-first prospect.

Where Wetherholt has the edge on both players ahead of him, though, is with the glove. Stewart and Ballesteros are both rated as average or worse defenders, while the Cardinals prospect can play solid defense at three offensive positions. The race for National League Rookie of the Year in 2026 is up for grabs, and there is plenty that can change before the start of the regular season. Wetherholt was just looked at as a "sure thing" prospect, so even if his offense lags behind his peers in year one, Cardinals fans should be excited for his long-term future in St. Louis.