Cardinals spring training is back…but don’t fall for these fake storylines

The St. Louis Cardinals are playing real baseball games! OK, they’re playing practice baseball games, but stat lines are being generated, dirt is accruing on jerseys, and guys with no names on their uniforms are trying to make an impression. Which brings us to an important question — what actually matters about spring training?

Before we dive headlong into this topic, let’s take one more second to ruminate on something. Inherently, spring training matters because we care about baseball and spring training is the gateway to the return of that sport. Hope springs eternal (well, maybe not for Rockies fans?), everyone is in the best shape of their lives, everyone has retooled their swing and breaking pitches in the offseason, and everyone has obviously put on 15 pounds of muscle. (I wish that worked for fans!) Over on the Redbird Rundown podcast, we took a look at the storylines that will define the season with special guest Daniel Shoptaw – spring training is the first step in answering those questions. That matters.

Spring training doesn’t matter, and smart franchises shouldn’t make big decisions based on this data.

Let’s get nerdy. I’ve always been confused by the fact that when players have a hot or cold streak in the regular season, the collective media are quick to bring up the idea of a “small sample size.”  We get this intuitively. Babies taking their first steps is a small sample size and more often than not ends in a flop to the ground. The chips and salsa at a Mexican restaurant might be awesome, but if the entree makes you sick, that’s all you remember. (Hopefully not! Long live Mexican food!)

Baseball is the ultimate long game in sports. Part of the reason it lends itself so well to stats is that there is so much of it. Baseball is a symphony. Why do we get hung up on the opening notes of spring training? Case in point, Brendan Donovan (gosh, I miss those locks flowing out of the helmet rounding the bases already) hit a cool .213/.275/.255 in spring training last year. Guess what? He was a deserving all-star by July. Donnie was cold. Masyn Winn was Siberia in winter. He hit .080/.145/.080 in fifty at-bats. Winn found his way out of Siberia in time for the regular season.

You prefer negativity? Well, for the sickos out there, feast your eyes on this. Victor Scott II torched spring training to a tune of .349/.451/.721 last year. That’s Mickey Mantle, Ken Griffey, Jr. and peak Andruw Jones rolled into one. Or, Barry Bonds with performance-enhancing drugs. 

Statistically speaking, there is almost no correlation, positively or negatively to the regular season. Simply put, spring training stats don’t matter. Established major leaguers don’t play the whole game. Guys work on certain pitches and swing styles and don’t even care about the results. 

So, Chaim Bloom, do me a personal favor and don’t let spring stats weigh your decisions. I don’t care how Pedro Pages and Jimmy Crooks hit this spring; make the best decision on backup catcher for the franchise based on health and past body of work. And as fans, we need to enjoy spring training for the ramp-up that it is and not have a high-speed come-apart at positive or negative results.

What spring training does tell us

There’s only one thing that really matters from spring: health. The only thing we really care about as far as pitchers are concerned is that there are tweets from the beat writers talking about arm issues. Position players need to exit with healthy backs and legs to carry them through the whole season. A huge slew of Tommy John surgeries happen during spring training because that’s where injuries reveal themselves.

So, in my best Mr. Rogers voice, let me encourage Cardinal fans everywhere to enjoy spring training for what it is. Practice. Warmups. I love to see the videos of the guys playing catch in camp, and so do you. We should. We’re fans. But just take a deep breath and let these guys tune their instruments so that they can begin the real symphony come Opening Day. That’s why spring training matters and the only reason you should care about it.