Cardinals slugger among league's unluckiest hitters to start the 2025 season

Few observers and analysts expected the St. Louis Cardinals to be a team in contention in 2025, but although most members of the team have outperformed expectations thus far, one of the players whom fans predicted to carry the squad hasn't quite reached the career highs that many had projected.

Several Redbird Rants writers expected the Cardinals to finish around .500, but a near consensus was that Willson Contreras would finish as the team's most valuable player. The logic was that by disposing of his catcher's equipment and shifting to the much less taxing position of first base, Contreras would be able to let his bat shine since he would no longer have to focus on calling games and working with pitchers.

However, Contreras failed to approach even the most muted of expectations early in the season. He didn't reach the Mendoza Line (a .200 batting average) until April 23, where he had a .574 OPS. His struggles stood out even more when compared with most other Cardinals, who were hitting everything in sight.

But while hitting is seen as one of the most difficult things to do in all of sports, there is an element of luck to the practice. A black cat must have crossed Contreras' path prior to this season, because according to a graphic comparing weighted on-base average (wOBA) to expected weighted on-base average (xwOBA), Contreras' xwOBA is 50 points higher than his wOBA, at .360 to .310. That ties him as the 15th "unluckiest" hitter in the major leagues in 2025.

Contreras has not had luck on his side so far this year.

Those stats have actually improved from earlier in the season: On the aforementioned date of April 23, Contreras' xwOBA was .326, but his wOBA was a paltry .256 — a massive 70-point difference. He was on the upswing after that: On May 16, Contreras reached a season-high batting average of .261 prior to another dry spell.

Through all the misfortune at the plate, Contreras has remained a model Cardinal. He showed the willingness to move to first base to help the team, and he has become an above-average defender at the position. Contreras endeared himself even more to fans with his comment about standing dangerously close to the batter when guarding against a bunt, saying "I don't care. I'm not afraid. If I'm going to die, I'll die right there."

The streak of bad luck in the batter's box could send a weaker-willed player spiraling into a complete collapse, but Contreras has shown that he has the mental toughness to grind through the issues. His slow start to the year means he may not reach the lofty heights that fans had hoped for this season, but if the positive regression continues, Contreras could still prove himself to be an anchor to the lineup.