Cardinals reliever Matt Svanson is missing his best weapon

The St. Louis Cardinals might be the most overachieving team in all of MLB. Unfortunately, not everyone can be hot at once. Matt Svanson is taking the brunt of that burden in 2026. 

Matt Svanson was electric in 2025

Svanson, 27, was acquired for Paul DeJong in 2023. The hurler burst onto the scene in 2024 when he made 53 appearances and held a 2.69 ERA for the Cardinals’ Double-A affiliate. It was shaping up like Svanson would ride his momentum all the way to the ninth inning for the big club. 

Svanson was dominant in 2025 by any measurement. Volume? 60.1 innings. Production? 1.94 ERA. Game impact? 1.9 WAR as a reliever who didn’t record a single save. His ERA+ was 208, meaning his production was more than twice as valuable as that of the average joe.

Svanson's performance was so good, St. Louis sportswriter Bernie Miklasz had him as a shoo-in for closing time. 

“Marmol shouldn’t overthink this,” Miklasz said in the preseason. “You take the easiest and most sensible path: you make the call and give Svanson the ball.” To his credit, nobody could’ve predicted such a sudden decline. 

So what happened? How did Svanson go from being a bright spot to that glare on the TV you can’t seem to escape while watching The Office? 

Chase the chase

One inkling that more analysts should have paid attention to was Svanson’s lack of chase. His inability to induce poor swing decisions directly deters whiffs. When MLB hitters home in and stop worrying about driving the baseball, it’s imperative to draw them outside of the zone. That’s why baseball’s best closer is Mason Miller, who nearly negates contact entirely. 

Former Cardinal closer Ryan Helsley struggled similarly. Fans would watch groundballs sneak through holes, leading to implosions. Why did those groundballs sneak through? Because contact and luck are cousins. Whiffs can't relate.

Svanson dialed back the use of his sweeper this year and replaced it with more sinkers. The pitch dropped from 35% to 26%. A questionable adjustment, to say the least. Last season, the Svanson sweeper held opponents to an expected batting average (xBA) of .146. Evidently, the pitch was so gross that even Svanson got sick of it. 

Additionally, his arm angle has dropped from 32 degrees to 28 degrees. Pitchers who go through a rapid decline can use their release point as a jumping-off point of sorts. Svanson hasn’t had a great feel for his pitches thus far. His uncompetitive two-strike offerings add up over time. When big league hitters get a last gasp, it functions more like an oxygen tank. 

Come back, old friend

The reddest of flags is the Svanson sinker. Last year, the Cardinal fireman posted 2.4 run value per 100 sinkers. This year, that number currently sits at -2.3. No wonder he looks lost. The journey back to success starts and most likely ends with Svanson’s rediscovery of his primary weapon. Right now, the right-hander is missing his best pitch. Without it, he’s a dime a dozen. 

It’s in St. Louis’s best interests to figure out their Svanson-sized problem. The last thing the Redbirds need is another arm they can’t stabilize long term. 

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