Cardinals reeling as Matt Svanson goes from untouchable to unplayable

Among the most surprising results of the season so far has been the performance of St. Louis Cardinals reliever Matt Svanson. The wheels came off for Svnason again as recently as Saturday night against the Red Sox when he allowed five earned runs in an inning of work — and surrendered six straight batted ball events of over 100 mph. All told, he has compiled a 15.58 ERA. When your ERA has a driver’s permit, it’s never a good thing.

It’s as though the Monstars from Space Jam have come and stolen his powers. What makes this so confounding is just how lights-out Svanson was last year. He was essentially a Monstar himself. Svanson had a 1.94 ERA and a 2.72 FIP in 60.1 innings pitched last year. He was, pound for pound, the best pitcher on the team. Obviously, some pitchers threw more innings for the Cardinals last season, but no one threw better in their innings load than Svanson did. He was an up-and-coming bullpen star in his first season.

This development comes at a poor point in the trajectory of the Cardinals. On Redbird Rundown, while answering a listener question about what starters would consistently throw six innings or more this year, Josh Jacobs, Scott Plaza, and I essentially threw up our hands and discussed what that would mean for the bullpen load. In short, the pen is going to have to cover a lot of innings this year and Svanson was primed to be a key part of that. We discussed quite a few interesting topics if podcasts are your thing — Apple and Spotify!

So, what gives with Svanson? Thus far (yes, I’m aware it’s early, but we have what we have so far), Svanson has compiled some tough numbers. Brace yourself. He’s running the aforementioned 15.58 ERA, an 8.43 FIP, 6.23 BB/9, and an outrageously bad 23.1% HR/FB rate – he’s giving up loud contact in the air at an alarming rate. By fWAR, he’s the fifth-worst reliever in the MLB at a stunning -0.4 fWAR. It’s bad. It’s like embarrassing yourself on a first date bad. Or when they put the kid in at the end of the bench to give him some charity playing time bad (they may or may not have been me from time to time).

Now for the million-dollar question ($700,000 question if you value precision), what has changed to give these kinds of results? It’s entirely possible there’s a mechanical issue going on. He’s lost a tick on the velocity of all his pitches. It’s difficult to tell whether that’s because it’s April or there’s something deeper going on. But, in the case of every single pitch, the velocity is down about 1 mph and there is less movement on each pitch. There is another possible cause beyond simply chilly weather though. His angle of release has dipped from 32 degrees to 28 degrees this season. Go ahead and make jokes in your head about Svanson being below the freezing point – it’s been a frigid start to the year for him.

The fact that his release point has shifted is an important data point. This suggests a possible change at several points across his delivery spectrum that could be moving his arm slot down and robbing him of movement and velocity. Even small changes against the best hitters in the world can have drastic outcomes. Last year, his Stuff+ measured out at a gargantuan 105. This season it’s an anemic 93. The tracking cameras have noticed the dip in stuff. So have the hitters, and they are teeing off.

The search for the Monstars that stole his powers doesn’t stop with his velocity and break, though. Another possible alien stalking the scene is his location. Last year, Svanson ran a 103 Location+. What made him so good last year was that he leveraged his elite stuff with elite command. That’s a poisonous recipe to use against hitters. This season? His Location+ is a measly 93 (yes, again). He’s missing his locations. Badly. The eye test confirms the numbers here. He consistently falls behind the count on hitters and then misses to the middle of the zone where hitters lick their chops and pad their stats. Mind you, this is when he’s even competitive in an at-bat. He’s also walking a ridiculous 6.23 batters per nine innings pitched.

There is no evidence that Matt Svanson is injured. He hasn’t said anything about that. The team hasn’t either. Because his numbers have dropped precipitously in the early going (about the same way Cardinals fans’ hearts drop when he comes in the game), all signs point to a mechanical issue. At this point, I truly wonder if a trip on the Memphis shuttle is the answer. He’s young. I’m not even close to ready to give up on him yet, but trying to fix things at the major league level can be a laborious process. The Cardinals should let him regroup in Memphis and see if he can regain his form as a bullpen weapon this year.

It’s possible that they’ve got some Bugs Bunny “secret stuff” in Memphis. Matt Svanson needs to go down and gulp it. Hope remains in my mind, but it’s been as bad as it gets so far.