Cardinals' projected 2027 arbitration salaries reveal key offseason decisions

Each year, Matt Swartz of MLB Trade Rumors uses a model to project salary figures for arbitration-eligible players in Major League Baseball. These projections are based on years of data and algorithm to look at a player's playing time, position, role, and performance statistics while accounting for inflation. Swartz's projections for the St. Louis Cardinals leave plenty on the table for the organization.

Teams must submit a contract offer to players in arbitration typically by the end of November. Players who do not receive an offer are "non-tendered" and thus become free agents. This year, the Cardinals have nine such players who will enter the arbitration process. You'll find their names and projections below. Their service time as of the end of the 2026 season is in parentheses.

• Andre Pallante (4.145): $7.5MM
• Nolan Gorman (4.055): $3.4MM
• Alec Burleson (4.029): $8.3MM
• Matthew Liberatore (3.144): $3.6MM
• Masyn Winn (3.045): $3.3MM
• Jordan Walker (3.044): $5.1MM
• Iván Herrera (3.034): $5.5MM
• Pedro Pagés (2.166): $1.3MM
• Kyle Leahy (2.140): $2.8MM

Alec Burleson sees a massive pay raise in his second year of arbitration here. He will get a raise from $3.3MM to $8.3MM. Burly's offensive ascension this year thanks to an MLB-best 116 RBIs is one of the reasons for his bump in pay. He also showed that he could be reliable at first base on the defensive side.

Andre Pallante sees a decent increase from $4MM to $7.75MM. He finished the year with a 3.83 ERA and a 3.74 FIP across 162 innings (29 starts). He was consistent and reliable, and he appeared to settle down after having a brutal 2025 season.

Jordan Walker also sees a nice salary after an electric and breakout 2026 season. He goes from making virtually the league minimum (plus some Home Run Derby bonuses) to $5.1MM. If he continues to produce at the level he did in 2026, he could set the franchise record for arbitration salaries.

The St. Louis Cardinals have several interesting decisions looming with their arbitration players.

Andre Pallane, Nolan Gorman, and Alec Burleson are the next crop of homegrown players who are set to hit free agency. All three will be free agents after the 2028 season. Matthew Liberatore, Masyn Winn, Jordan Walker, and Ivan Herrera are all three years away from free agency. Pedro Pages and Kyle Leahy are four years away from free agency.

Chaim Bloom has a lot of interesting possibilities with these arbitration-eligible players. Of the bunch, Nolan Gorman is the most likely to be non-tendered. Gorman has a career 33.8% strikeout rate with a .212/295/.402 slash line for a 94 wRC+ in 1,883 plate appearances. He cratered this year with a 62 wRC+, and his production in Triple-A wasn't much better. The Cardinals could look to save a few million dollars and non-tender him.

Matthew Liberatore is also a non-tender candidate, but Chaim Bloom still has a bit of belief in Libby, particularly when it comes to his strikeout rate increasing this past year despite falling victim to a rough inning frequently in his starts.

Beyond these two non-tender candidates is a splattering of extension-eligible players. Alec Burleson and Jordan Walker would be the most obvious extension candidates. These two players could become cornerstone hitters in the next iteration of a competitive Cardinals team. With Burly just two years away from free agency, an extension could potentially come to fruition this offseason. He's at least interested in one. Jordan Walker's breakout year and offensive ceiling make him another potential extension candidate.

Chaim Bloom's work gets tricky when it comes to three other players on this list: Andre Pallante, Masyn Winn, and Ivan Herrera.

If Bloom sees the Cardinals' World Series window as open in the next three years, expect these players to be signed or maybe even extended. If he doesn't, they are all three pretty obvious trade candidates. Pallante would be a sell-high candidate following a bounce-back 2026 season. Ivan Herrera's stock isn't as high as it was last offseason. His defensive shortcomings at catcher and his bat fading last year have taken a toll on his overall value. However, he's a potent right-handed hitter who could feasibly play catcher, first base, corner outfield, and DH. There's always a market for those types of players.

Masyn Winn is perhaps the most interesting player on this list. He's a perennial Gold Glove candidate when he's healthy. There's also every reason to believe that he hasn't hit his ceiling when it comes to hitting and running on the basepaths. If Bloom believes in the farm's ability to recoup Winn's production defensively to a certain extent while providing more offense, Masyn could be traded this offseason. Jesus Baez has shown a propensity to play short well while also mashing home runs left and right.

There's a lot of work to do for Chaim Bloom and the Cardinals this offseason with arbitration-eligible players. We'll get some answers just before the impending lockout.

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