Cardinals need to watch out for division rival who could rise to thwart their rebuild

The St. Louis Cardinals haven't been relevant in the NL Central picture since their magical 2022 season, and at the outset of a rebuild, that figures to be the case for some time.

Right now, the division belongs to the Milwaukee Brewers, who have four of the past five NL Central crowns. The Chicago Cubs are also involved in the race, though their whittling core might send them tumbling back down the standings in short order.

And then there's the Cincinnati Reds and Pittsburgh Pirates, neither of whom has won the division since 2012. Both teams have made the same number of postseason appearances since 2014 (two), though at least the Reds appear to be on the rise following their playoff bid this past season.

The Pirates are truly the bottom-feeders of the NL Central, and despite an elite pitching staff led by Paul Skenes, their utterly incompetent offense figures to hold them back.

But, what if their future is actually far brighter than it appears?

Pirates could be set for big leap in NL Central in near-future

Baseball America is right to point out how good the Pirates' young pitching staff is. Skenes just won the NL Cy Young Award and figures to be a dominant force for the next decade, and he's flanked by top prospect Bubba Chandler and fireballer Jared Jones (who missed the 2025 season due to injury).

The offense remains a concern considering Spencer Horwitz was their only above-average regular by wRC+, but their farm system is loaded with talent, including MLB's top prospect Konnor Griffin and Arizona Fall League star Esmerlyn Valdez.

If rumors that they plan to actually spend on free agents this offseason are to be believed, there's a chance they could make some noise in the NL Central as soon as next year.

However, this is the Pirates we're talking about. They're allergic to multi-year contracts and have still never eclipsed more than $39 million on any free-agent signing in franchise history. Expecting a complete turnaround on that front probably isn't the wisest belief to hold.

Plus, comparing Griffin -- who is an excellent prospect -- to Bobby Witt Jr. is probably putting the cart ahead of the horse. The Pirates' top prospect was a first-round draft pick 16 months ago; Witt has been worth 18.5 fWAR over the past two seasons. Pittsburgh would need Griffin to be at least that good to get their offense back on track.

No matter what the Pirates do this offseason, their contention window likely won't affect the Cardinals too heavily—Skenes will likely be traded by the time St. Louis is ready to compete for another World Series title.

Still, their presence as a true NL contender could change the math on when the Cardinals decide to go for it again. It was only a decade ago that the two teams finished with the most and second-most wins in all of Major League Baseball.