Cardinals' likeliest trade piece may be easier to deal than expected

Maybe the Cardinals can get something in return after all!
Houston Astros v St. Louis Cardinals
Houston Astros v St. Louis Cardinals | Scott Kane/GettyImages

The St. Louis Cardinals have some major decisions to make this offseason as they enter into a full rebuild. With a young(er) core that lacks a massive superstar personality, the organization will have to make some tough choices when deciding who stays and who goes. A likely outcome of this process is that fans will see Nolan Arenado play out the remainder of his contract in a different uniform.

Nolan Arenado is still being paid by the Colorado Rockies.

When the Cardinals acquired Arenado, not only did they give up minimal prospect capital, they also convinced the Rockies to throw in some cash on top of the deal. In return for a new payday, Arenado withheld his opportunity to opt out of his current contract and still had seven years remaining on his extension signed with the Rockies. The annual value of that deal from Colorado would pay Arenado $32.5 million every year through his age-36 season, ending in 2027.

At the time of the trade, Arenado had $199 million remaining on his contract, but the Rockies were so ready to give up on the third baseman that they decided to throw some cash at the Cardinals. With the Cardinals giving up a handful of mid-level prospects, the Rockies also paid Arenado's entire 2021 salary and covered $5 million of each remaining year on the deal.

Now, Arenado has two years remaining on his contract and, with the help of the Rockies, will be paid a total of $31 million. With an average of $15.5 million per year, the third baseman's contract may not be as untradeable as originally thought. It is still likely, though, that the Cardinals will have to throw in some cash for the aging veteran, depending on if a trade is for salary relief or if St. Louis is trying to revamp their minor league system. Based on the estimated $8 million per 1.0 WAR, Arenado is still overpaid based on his previous two years of performance.

Beyond injuries, Arenado has seemingly lost all power and is now a defense-first third baseman who is on a downward trajectory as he finishes his career. It is hard to believe that Arenado is still just 34 years old, so it is still possible he could tap into something extra on the back nine of his career. This past season, Arenado put up career-best marks in terms of his plate discipline, striking out at the lowest rate, but he still only came in as a below-average hitter with an 84 WRC+, more than 30 points below his career average.

While the list of negative qualities relative to his performance surrounding Nolan Arenado continues to grow, at the end of the day, he is still one of the best third baseman in baseball history. Finding a match for Arenado may still prove to be difficult, as there are few contending teams out there that have an opening for an aging veteran. The final hurdle for all parties to clear will be Arenado's no-trade clause, so any fit still has to be approved by the potential Hall of Famer.

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