Cardinals have chance to break frustrating years-long trend as they close 2026 season

It's no secret that the St. Louis Cardinals have struggled over the last four seasons on the field, but one important metric actually indicates their talent is on the rise, and they have a chance to break a frustrating streak they've been on since 2023.

Right now, the Cardinals' run differential for the season is -6, so they are within striking distance of a positive mark for the first time since 2022, when they won the National League Central and posted a +135 run differential.

Even in 2024, when the Cardinals finished above .500, they were -47 in run differential for the season. The offense went ice cold that season, and their pitching staff was average at best. That team didn't have any business pushing for the playoffs, but they seemed to pull the right levers most of the season to fire off wins until they fell apart after the trade deadline.

I know. They don't give out trophies for having a positive run differential, and I'm not trying to put too much stock in it, but the fact that the Cardinals even have a chance to achieve that for the first time since 2022 tells me something significant about this current group.

It's the most talent they've had since they last made the playoffs.

The Cardinals' run differential mark shows how much more talent is on the 2026 team

In 2023, the Cardinals had no pitching. In 2024, the offense stunk. In 2025, they fielded a weird, semi-competitive team that was going to sell but didn't actually start a rebuild, so it was pretty mediocre all around.

In 2026, not only do they have direction, but the big league club is full of young, ascending talent that has more and more reinforcements on the way, and very little financially invested in that payroll yet.

On the position player side of things, I don't think it's even up for debate that Jordan Walker, Alec Burleson, JJ Wetherholt, Ivan Herrera, Masyn Winn, Leo Bernal, and Joshua Baez make up a core that hasn't been matched in some time. They even have productive pieces to supplement them, like Thomas Saggese, Jose Fermin, and Nathan Church. With Rainiel Rodriguez inching closer to joining them and other fun names coming soon, that group is only going to get stronger.

On the pitching side of things, this is the best rotation they've had since 2022. Kyle Leahy and Andre Pallante have been studs this year, while Michael McGreevy and Quinn Mathews are rising in their own right. And it's not even a debate that the most exciting arms in the system haven't made their way to St. Louis yet.

Sure, the bullpen has issues. That will need to be addressed and will come in the form of starters missing out on the rotation and ending up there, trades, free-agent additions, and more reliever prospects like Sandro Santana and Randel Clemente on their way.

The Cardinals have a lot of talent right now, and that talent is on the rise. I don't think either of those things could really be said in the previous three seasons. Sure, there were definitely good or even great players who had productive seasons, but there has not been a group with this much collective talent since the Cardinals saw Albert Pujols and Yadier Molina walk off the field for one final time.

That's a good place to be, and finding a way to finish the year "in the green" runs-wise would be a nice way of putting a number to that reality.

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