Cardinals have a major Lars Nootbaar dilemma on their hands

Buy? Sell? Do a bit of both? St. Louis is somewhere in between. However, one Cardinals slugger has been deemed untouchable by former Redbirds Lance Lynn and Kyle Gibson. 

On the Cardinals Territory Podcast (Foul Territory Network), Lynn and Gibson broke down how important Lars Nootbaar is to this year’s roster.

“Lars is the DUDE in the clubhouse,” said Lynn. “He’s awesome. Everybody loves him. He keeps the team together, keeps them going. He’s funny and does a lot of positive things in that clubhouse.”

At first, it sounded like the same old spiel Cardinals fans had heard about Nootbaar. Then, Lynn doubled down. 

“If you’re gonna be good next year, you need Lars Nootbaar on your team. So, I’m for extending Lars Nootbaar. And making Lars the guy to help take this team where it's going, because I think that's who he is. He can play all three outfield positions, and he’s your leader. He’ll be a free agent after next year. You know what his arbitration number is probably gonna be next year, and then you know what you need to give him in free agency…I think he’s a guy who has to stay.” 

Gibson replied, “I think he’s an interesting case for both arbitration and free agency because of his unfortunate injury history. And if he loves St. Louis, which I think all signs point to him enjoying it here, I think you have a real chance to sign a player who’s had some injury history but, when on the field, has been very good for you. I think you’re right; I think an extension makes a whole lot of sense.”

Well, that was out of left field (get it?). Nootbaar looked like an all-but-furnished trade chip, ready to be sent off for a flurry of young arms. 

According to the two former Redbirds, he should be here to stay. 

What does Nootbaar realistically boil down to as a player right now?

To extend or trade: the Cardinals' Lars Nootbaar saga 

As previously mentioned, Nootbaar will hit free agency after next year, heading into his age-30 season.

This year, in 104 at-bats, his 121 OPS+ has transformed the Cardinal lineup. 

Before his reintroduction, the bottom third of St. Louis' order would go through week-long dry spells. With his disciplined approach and sneaky pop in the middle or lower third, the Cardinals have a much deeper threat to assess. 

But does his production in just over 100 at-bats dictate an extension? It nearly took Jordan Walker pulling a literal rabbit out of a hat for him to work his way back into that arena. Nootbaar lacks the pedigree and hasn’t had that one season where he shines brighter than the lights around him. 

That being said, have his misfortunes alienated him from St. Louis’ plans? Or given the Cardinals' reason to be optimistic for his return to the field?

Reasons for the Cardinals to trade Lars Nootbaar

Age and injuries: The Cardinals’ next core is set. JJ Wetherholt, Jordan Walker, Ivan Herrera, Masyn Winn, Michael McGreevy, and a few more baby birds look to be on the way. Noot is approaching 30, fast. Father Time seems to pick and choose who he gets along with at random, but he especially picks on the misfortunes of the injured. It’s feasible to imagine a timeline where the Cards give him a chance, and he’s barely on the field enough to hit his weight. Nootbaar is no slouch, but sometimes, he’s stuck on the couch. And as he continues to age, there’s less and less of an inclination for improved health and performance. Remember how quickly Nolan Arenado dissuaded himself from the Cardinals faithful? And he’s a future Hall of Famer. 

Options: For the first time in a very long time, the Cardinals have players pushing through their pipeline. In Triple-A alone, Joshua Baez and Chase Davis are surging toward big league debuts. Where is the roster spot? It’s not coming at Walker’s expense; I’ll tell you that. Nathan Church is a rookie, not him either. Jose Fermin? But you love ‘The Ferminator,’ too? See how it gets tight fast? If you aren’t on team ‘trade Noot,’ you’re on team ‘trade Church/Fermin/Baez/Davis.’ There is no in-between. It seems more likely that a rookie hits his stride than that Noot finds the elusive fountain of youth in the years to come. 

Value: In his aforementioned workload of 104 ABs, Noot has been excellent. His play on the field is finally matching his vibrant temperament in the clubhouse. He looks young and dumb again, which no doubt lines up with his double-heel surgery from this past offseason. That being said, because his analytics finally line up with the back of his baseball card, teams will feel comfortable buying into Noot’s stock. If Chaim Bloom figures himself a businessman, it could be smart to invest in Wetherholt and Walker by dealing away a more expendable asset. The return could help remold St. Louis around its new core, rather than competing with the random assortments of two different regimes. It’s time to get everyone on the same page. This feels like a book half-written by a ghost. Unfortunately, Nootbaar’s chapter is in invisible ink. 

Reasons for the Cardinals to extend

Vibes: Do you like smiles? What about the ‘pepper grinder’ celebration? Or a big bubble blown in the midst of a highlight reel play? Nootbaar has it all. He’s a human highlight reel on the field, and whenever he finds a camera. St. Louis is young. You know what young people are known to be? Impressionable. Lars Nootbaar has imprinted his relaxed dominance on other Cardinals’ youngsters, and without him, especially considering the praise that former teammates have for him, the clubhouse will be irked. 

Production: He’s finally doing it. What? That thing that those numbers always promised! Nootbaar, a famous/infamous Statcast darling (depending on who you ask), is matching his projections. Coming up, he was coveted for his disciplined approach, pull-side power, above-average defense, and bat-to-ball skills. Now, he’s a stronger, more disciplined hitter at the plate and has started to tap into that power that fans have grown accustomed to only witnessing in spurts. If he lands in the right place, there’s a good chance he could hold a 110-120 OPS+ for the next 2-3 years. 

Faith and church: As Lynn stated, Noot does play all three outfield positions. If St. Louis wanted to, they could buy Nootbaar stock rather than Church. That’d blindside some people, huh? All this talk about trading Nootbaar for Bloom to deal away a rookie in the midst of a strong season. That’d be crazy, right? Well, actually not at all. Church is the anti-Nootbaar. His on-field play has been very acceptable, but the underlying numbers are agonizing. He chases far too much, rarely walks, doesn’t hit the ball very hard, and has lackluster bat speed. His only true calling card is defense. Are St. Louisans trying to sell high on the wrong candidate? 

Irrespective of what happens with Nootbaar, he’s a Cardinals’ legend. From the minute he donned the Birds on the Bat, he cultivated smiles, big moments, and lifelong fans. Maybe they shouldn’t be so quick to let go. That’s obviously what the alumni think. 

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