Cardinals' framework for Brendan Donovan-Royals trade becoming even clearer

The St. Louis Cardinals are gauging the trade market for a Brendan Donovan blockbuster, and as the MLB Winter Meetings heat up this week in Orlando, teams are beginning to emerge as real contenders for the Cardinals' All-Star.

Among the 20 or more teams that have interest in Donovan, the New York Yankees, Los Angeles Dodgers, Seattle Mariners, Cleveland Guardians, Houston Astros, and Pittsburgh Pirates all appear to be serious contenders, but the team that keeps getting brought into the center of the conversation by one local beat writer is the Kansas City Royals.

Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch has been on top of the Royals' interest in Donovan for weeks, and he has now confirmed that there is one arm in particular that the Cardinals may be trying to get back in a Donovan trade, and that is left-hander Noah Cameron.

Noah Cameron could be an underwhelming centerpiece of a Brendan Donovan trade

Cameron, 26, had a really nice rookie campaign for the Royals in 2025, posting a 2.99 ERA in 138 innings of work while finishing fourth in AL Rookie of the Year voting. With five years of team control remaining, he fits what the Cardinals are looking for in terms of their timeline, but I really don't see how Cameron is the kind of arm the Cardinals should be betting on upside-wise. According to Goold though, the Cardinals have interest in acquiring Cameron.

The Cardinals, under Bloom's influence, have been targeting high-upside, big-time stuff pitchers who fit the mold of the modern pitcher. Cameron, on the other hand, has a low-90s fastball that was a negative pitch in 2025, but ranks in the 99th percentile in breaking ball value due to his elite curveball and plus slider. Both are great pitches, and if the Cardinals think they can get more out of Cameron's fastball, then maybe he is the right guy. But personally, targeting Cameron feels like the same old Cardinals.

He's a guy who gets most of his outs via soft contact and limits damage from opposing hitters. Those are great qualities, but if the market for Donovan is truly as robust as it is right now, I would be looking for a guy who misses a lot of bats. While Cameron's ERA is certainly flashy for a rookie, his expected numbers weren't as pretty. In his 24 starts, Cameron posted a 4.08 xERA, 4.18 FIP, and 4.10 xFIP and was worth under 2 fWAR.

Cameron struck out fewer than eight batters per nine innings as well, but to be fair, he did have much better strikeout numbers as he was making his way through the minor league levels. But in order to achieve that at the Major League level, he is going to have to find a way to increase the effectiveness of his fastball, whether that means a velocity increase, changes in its shape or usage, or something else.

When I put together trade packages that I think the Cardinals should be looking for in return for Donovan, the Royals were not on that list, because I truly do feel like they would be settling in a Cameron deal. If you're trading Donovan, you need more in return, in my opinion.