Cardinals facing uncomfortable Nolan Arenado reality as they stave off rebuild

Now more than two months into the 2026 season, it's clear that the St. Louis Cardinals are legitimate. As part of the league's toughest division, their 31-26 record through the end of May didn't look quite as sterling as it otherwise would, but this "rebuilding" team isn't just thriving because they're playing with house money.

It just so happens that the same could be said for old friend Nolan Arenado. The future Hall of Famer was finally shipped out over the winter as part of a youth movement in St. Louis, waiving his no-trade clause to a join a fledgling Diamondbacks team that had to compete with the big, bad Dodgers in the NL West.

After a disastrous start to his tenure in Arizona — he had a sub-.400 OPS through his first 50 plate appearances — Arenado has turned things all the way around. He's now hitting .270/.350/.466 (128 wRC+) across the full year, posting some of his best numbers since his run at the MVP award in 2022.

He's been particularly hot since mid-May: Over his last 17 games, the third baseman owns a .940 OPS. While it's great to see Nado thriving, his bounce back does beg the question: Would the Cardinals be better off if they hadn't traded him?

Cardinals were right to commit to rebuild, no matter what happens in 2026

Regret is a natural part of the "rebuilding" process, especially when your team seemingly skips a few steps in their return to contention. It also doesn't help that Jack Martinez (the prospect the Cardinals received for Arenado) has a 4.70 FIP in Low-A, nor is it fun to think about Nolan Gorman's 75 wRC+ as the team's primary third baseman.

That being said, Arenado needed to go. John Mozeliak couldn't commit to a future-first approach, which is how the Cardinals ended up with two sub-.500 seasons over the past three years. Chaim Bloom was right to focus on the youth in the organization. There's no guarantee that Arenado, who only started thriving after making a swing change, would have experienced the same success in St. Louis this year.

Likewise, the team acquired foundational pieces for Willson Contreras (144 wRC+), Sonny Gray (3.06 ERA), and Brendan Donovan (.839 OPS). Would it have been worth punting on all of those prospects — or blocking the path of some of the team's best contributors, including rookie JJ Wetherholt and starter Dustin May — just for a chance to run it back one more time in 2026?

If this team falls one star short in October, maybe that's a conversation worth revisiting. For now, it's clear the Cardinals are being rewarded for their boldness.

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