Cardinals Dustin May showing crucial velocity upticks early in spring

It's often been said that spring training stats don't matter. Pitchers are tweaking things, batters are often seeing pitchers who won't sniff the majors, and all players are working on minor adjustments, perhaps to the detriment of their stats.

However, underlying metrics can tell a story that should be noted when it comes to spring training. For the St. Louis Cardinals biggest offseason signing in two years, velocity is something that matters quite a bit.

St. Louis Cardinals Dustin May is showing early signs of positive adjustments with his velocity.

Dustin May made his first spring start on Thursday against the Pittsburgh Pirates at LECOM Park in Bradenton, Florida. It took May only 42 pitches to get through three innings unscathed, and he was strong on the mound. He allowed only one hit, walking a batter and striking one out as well.

May's stat line was fine, but once again, stat lines don't matter much at spring training. What truly mattered for Dustin May was the underlying metrics.

May threw 14 sweepers, 14 sinkers, 12 fastballs, and two cutters in his outing. May's fastball peaked at 99.3 MPH, and it averaged 97.8 MPH. This is a 2.4 MPH uptick from 2025 and a figure much more in line with his previous career averages. May's fastball was at its fastest in 2020 when it averaged 99.1 MPH. It was 97.3 MPH in 2023, and it sat at 98.1 MPH in 2022. Interestingly enough, May was at his best in 2020 and 2023.

May's sinker (96.1 MPH) was up 1.6 MPH from last year, and his cutter (93.7 MPH) was up 2.3 MPH from the 2025 season.

Dustin May threw a simulated game on the backfields last week, and manager Oli Marmol said that he was sitting 97-98 while touching 99, very comparable figures to this start.

Dustin May is determined to get back to his old self after experiencing multiple injury-plagued seasons in a row. He threw a career-high 132.1 innings with a 4.96 ERA last year, but an esophageal tear in 2024 caused him to lose weight, thus weakening his 2025 numbers. Manager Oli Marmol is confident in May's return to form in 2026.

“He’s full go," said Marmol. "This early on for the velo to be where it’s hat, for that this early, to feel like he’s feeling bouncing back from his live (batting practice), is a plus. There’s really good life to it. I feel like he’s in a really good spot.”

Dustin May will continue to take regular starts for the Cardinals at spring training. The hope is that he can maintain these velocity gains while also staying effective on the mound. Health has always been a key factor for the 28-year-old starting pitcher, but he's confident that he can stay healthy this year. May signed a one-year contract with a mutual option for 2027. If he pitches well out of the gate, he could be a trade candidate at the deadline for the Cardinals. The player and team could also seek out a long-term extension if things go very well. Either way, Dustin May figures to be an important part of the Cardinals plans both now and in the future.