Cardinals’ best move this season? Not trading for Rafael Devers

The recent blockbuster trade sending Rafael Devers to the San Francisco Giants has sent ripples across Major League Baseball. While some St. Louis Cardinals fans might lament missing out on a star slugger, including our own Josh Jacobs, there's a greater argument to be made that avoiding a Devers trade was a smart move for the Redbirds.

First, consider the financial implications. Devers is in the second year of a massive 10-year, $313.5 million contract. Taking on the remaining $250+ million of that deal would have significantly burdened the Cardinals' payroll for years to come. After next year, his salary is $28.5 million a year. He will be 36 at the end of the contract. The Cardinals had trouble finding a buyer for Arenado’s $21 million. For that kind of money, I wait for the offseason and get Dylan Cease and Devin Williams for roughly the same amount, according to Spotrac. Fans also want to see long-term extensions for players like Winn, and this would make that much harder. 

While Devers is a potent bat, his defensive limitations at third base have always been a question mark, and the one thing that has made this Cardinals season better than expected has been the good defense. He has recently shown reluctance to shift positions. Committing such a significant sum to a player whose long-term defensive home is unclear, and who may not be willing to adapt, could have become a considerable liability. The Cardinals, with their youth movement, need players who can set a positive example, and I’m not sure this is the right type of leader you need younger players to be looking up to. 

The Cardinals would have to take on the salary, but a trade for Devers would also have required parting with valuable prospects, hindering the organization's future growth. 

To match this return, the St. Louis Cardinals would likely have had to give up a combination of:

A top-tier pitching prospect comparable to Kyle Harrison. The Cardinals would need to offer one of their top pitching prospects who is on the cusp of the big leagues or already there, such as Tink Hence or Gordon Graceffo.

A strong bullpen arm or a mid-rotation starter: To match Jordan Hicks, the Cardinals might have to part with a proven high-leverage reliever like Ryan Helsley or a young starter with big league experience like Zack Thompson or a promising arm like Sem Robberse.

A high-upside position player prospect: To match James Tibbs III, the Cardinals would likely need to offer one of their top hitting prospects, such as a talented outfielder like Chase Davis.

Another lower-tier pitching prospect: Similar to Jose Bello, a younger arm with potential but further away from the majors.

A trade like that would have been just the opposite of what the Cardinals are trying to do this year. First, they wanted to shed salary, not increase it. They also wanted to give the young guys a chance to play this year. If Devers came here to play third base, then Arenado shifts to first, and Contreras moves to catcher. If he played DH, that limits at bats for Gorman and Burleson and puts Herrera getting more time behind the plate, again weakening the defense. 

I agree the Cardinals need a star. They need a big-time bat in the middle of the lineup. Just not this bat, at this price, at this time.