A quick glance at Adam Wainwright's Baseball Reference will show a player who had plenty of success in his career. It doesn't scream "Hall of Famer" though; he never won a Cy Young, there isn't an abundance of bold numbers, and he had several injury-riddled seasons. However, he does have one accolade that likely won't be matched in the near future: he has 200 wins to his name.
Adam Wainwright is a three-time All Star, a Gold Glove Recipient, a winner of a Roberto Clemente Award, a Silver Slugger, and a World Series champion. He had a most enviable career. However, he hasn't been spoken in the same way as other Hall of Famers of his time including Clayton Kershaw, Max Scherzer, Zack Greinke, and Justin Verlander. He's seen as more of a second-tier pitcher compared to these legends.
Wainwright never won a Cy Young despite finishing in the top-three four separate times. He had an excellent five-year peak from 2009 through 2014 in which he had a cumulative ERA of 2.83 and a bWAR total of 25.7 bWAR. He led all of MLB in complete games (5) in 2013 and shutouts (3) in 2014. He was a 20-game winner twice during that span and a 19-game winner in two other seasons.
St. Louis Cardinals legend Adam Wainwright has an ever-clearer path to the Hall of Fame.
Among current major leaguers, the closest active pitcher to 200 wins (excluding Justin Verlander and Max Scherzer, both of whom have already eclipsed 200 wins) is Gerritt Cole with 162 wins. He just turned 36 years old and has just two years remaining on his nine-year deal.
Behind Cole is Chris Sale with 159 wins. Sale, 38, could be a free agent after the 2027 season with a club option for the 2028 season. Sonny Gray is in third place among active pitchers with 142 wins, but he's already 36 and considering retirement in the near future.
With wins becoming a stat of the past, there's a strong chance that no pitcher in the next decade reaches 200 career wins. Pitchers aren't going deep into games as often as they used to. Wins have become an antiquated stat that isn't referred to often anymore. Wainwright could be the final pitcher to achieve 200 wins.
That figure alone could be what gets Adam Wainwright into the Hall of Fame. He's eligible to be on the BBWAA ballot in 2029. He'll be on a ballot with several players who will be first-ballot Hall of Famers. Miguel Cabrera, Zack Greinke, and Joey Votto will all likely get in on their first go-around. Wainwright will almost assuredly stay on the ballot by receiving more than 5% of votes, but his chances of exceeding the 75% threshold in the first few years on the ballot aren't very strong.
With wins becoming a fabled statistic of the past, some voters may want to put Waino into the Hall of Fame to maintain a grasp on the history of the game. If he falls off the writer's ballot, he could be an excellent veterans committee candidate.
Adam Wainwright was once seen as a longshot to make it into Cooperstown. With the rarity of 200 wins, Wainwright could find his way into baseball immortality.
