Cardinals' 3 biggest X-factors in order to play October baseball

The St. Louis Cardinals have a massive series coming up against the Philadelphia Phillies. They took a series against the Bronx Bombers and scraped out another series win, facing off against the blistering-hot Rockies lineup. Now, the ultimate challenge comes to town. 

Ahead of the series, the Phils hold the National League’s third wild card spot, while St. Louis is 3.5 games out. 

Dating back to 2022, when the Phillies shattered every Cardinal fan’s heart, they have been sort of a makeshift rival. And starting on August 10, they’ll be the Redbirds' biggest hurdle yet as they try to play October baseball this season. 

If the Cardinals are going to overcome Philadelphia’s finest, and beyond, there are a few players who MUST be locked in. Let’s dive into the three biggest X factors for St. Louis down the stretch. 

Ivan Herrera

For over a month, Ivan Herrera has looked uncomfortable at the plate, and his results have reflected as much. 

His .592 OPS over his last 28 days is abysmal, and he’s been one of the biggest holes in the Cardinals lineup. 

Fortunately, in the last seven days, that number jumps to .776. He’s been hitting the ball a bit harder, his swing has looked faster, and thus, production has followed. 

Although the defense remains putrid, Herrera’s right-handed bat is a game-changer in the Cardinal lineup; outside of Jordan Walker, who will always have swing-and-miss concerns, St. Louis lacks serious right-handed upside.

If the Cardinals want to continue playing meaningful baseball, Herrera might be the most important bat down the stretch. 

When he’s on, he gets on base, puts the ball in play, and has sneaky power. That kind of production can function as a guiding light for the rest of a lineup. Herrera is a must for the next two months. 

Riley O’Brien 

After a dreadful June/July, Riley O’Brien has reinvigorated the Redbirds in the latter innings. 

After a lockdown save in game three of the Colorado series, O’Brien is now tied for the National League lead with 29 saves. 

His fingerprints are all over this turnaround season in St. Louis. He has now saved 49% of Cardinal wins this season–an unbelievable jump from the former project. 

His ERA on the year, 3.28, is very respectable for a first-year closer. Most debut seasons in the ninth inning end rather spitefully. If you’re looking for an example, the Southside of Chicago bet on Seranthony Domínguez after a dominant season as a setup man, and he currently holds a 4.69 ERA and was offloaded at the trade deadline. 

Simply put: the Cardinals cannot lose games they’re winning in the ninth. They don’t have the sheer talent to make up for misfortune in the last inning. That being said, it’s O’Brien’s world, and we’re all just living in it. 

Matthew Liberatore 

Last season, the Cardinals fell out of playoff contention, largely because of the atrocious performance of starting pitchers Miles Mikolas and Erick Fedde. 

Fans and armchair GMs alike project that if then-rookie Michael McGreevy had been given a shot sooner, the Redbirds would’ve been in a much better spot to compete for October. 

Matthew Liberatore has found himself in this same conversation. Hitters are feasting on his fastballs; he can’t locate the curve, and although his slider can rack up whiffs, it’s few and far between. 

Whether it’s a decision to remove him from the rotation altogether or a boost in performance, his success is imperative for the Cardinals’ final record. 

There are plenty of other Cardinals who will need to perform for sustained team success, but these three lead the way.

Without Herrera’s right-handed protection, O’Brien’s lockdown ninth innings, and either a decision on, or improvement from, Liberatore, the Cardinals will be left empty-handed come season's end. 

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