Can the Cardinals solve their outfield woes?

The Merriam-Webster dictionary defines a black hole primarily as “a celestial object that has a gravitational field so strong that light cannot escape it and that is believed to be created especially in the collapse of a very massive star.” 

It also offers three alternative definitions: “something that consumes a resource continually”; “an empty space: void”; and “a dark and seemingly inescapable state or situation.”

Those three alternatives sure seem to also sum up the St. Louis Cardinals' outfield production.

Since the glory days of peak Matt Holliday, the three outfield spots in St. Louis have been a revolving door of missed expectations, underwhelming prospects, and a lack of overall production.

A glance at the WAR leaders for each of the outfield spots over the last ten years requires a stiff bourbon nearby.

Since 2015, Tyler O’Neill’s 6.4 WAR is the highest a left fielder has posted in that time. O’Neill, of course, never even came close to replicating those numbers. Second among left fielders is Tommy Pham’s 6.3 in 2017. I’m a lifetime member of the Tommy Pham fan club (and a never-ever member of his fantasy league), but that season represents a third of his career WAR. After Pham, Brendan Donovan’s 2024 WAR of 2.6 leads the pack.

Sadly, left field is probably the best of the bunch.  Since 2015, Harrison Bader’s 4.1 WAR in 2021 tops all center fielders, with Lars Nootbaar close behind for his 3.3 WAR in 2023. I’ll give you $10 if you can guess who takes third. Give up? It was Randal Grichuk, with 2.6 WAR in 2016.

And somehow, right field is even worse. Jason Heyward provided hope with his 7 WAR season in 2015, but, even had he stayed with the Cardinals, that number was likely a mirage. You have to drop all the way down to Dylan Carlson’s 3.2 WAR in 2021 to find your runner-up.

So yeah, black hole. Some of this can be chalked up to tragedy, with the sudden death of Oscar Taveras, who sure looked like he’d be a star. I still find myself pulling up a video of his first home run in his debut game as rain fell on Busch Stadium.

But so much of it can be chalked up to failed prospects, failed free agent signings, and failed expectations. Stephen Piscotty, Tyler O’Neill, Peter Bourjos, Dylan Carlson, Jordan Walker, Dexter Fowler, Marcell Ozuna, and the list goes on and on. New faces, new prospects, same lack of production.

And it isn’t like 2026 is shaping up to be much better. Lars Nootbaar, your projected left fielder, looked like he might be the one to finally solve part of the outfield riddle, but his inability to stay healthy has pumped the brakes on all expectations.  Victor Scott II certainly provides excitement with his defense and speed, but the jury is still out on whether he can put the offense together in center field. And we all hope Jordan Walker finally turns the corner this year out in right, but we’re not holding our breath.

But maybe, if you squint hard enough, there’s some optimism around the corner. Joshua Baez, the Cardinals’ second-round pick in 2021, took a huge leap last year. Across High-A and Double-A ball, Baez hit .287/.384/.500 with 20 homers and 54 steals, and he’s now a mainstay on industry top 100 prospect lists.  Yes, we’ve been down this road before with outfield prospects. But Baez looks like he could be the real deal.

Perhaps Ivan Herrera joins him as a corner outfielder? With so many catching prospects already in the system, the Cardinals could go back to last year’s brief experiment and ensure Herrera’s bat plays every day as a corner outfielder.

Those two, plus the elite defense of Victor Scott II? That’s an outfield one can dream on.