Can Nolan Gorman recapture the imagination of Cardinals fans in 2025?

One of the names that the St. Louis Cardinals have continued to pump up as a recipient of true "runway" in 2025 is former top prospect Nolan Gorman.

Some have fairly pointed out that Gorman has actually had substantial runway already. With 315 games played and 1,179 plate appearances, it's not like he hasn't had an opportunity already. 2022 was a fine rookie year, 2023 was a big step forward where the power potential really began to shine through, but 2024 was about as bad as things can get.

Prior to the disaster that was 2024 for Gorman, the Cardinals second baseman was seen by many as someone prepared to take further steps forward in his development. When Gorman was right, he was one of the best bats in baseball for sustained stretches. There were months he was among the top bats in baseball (135 wRC+ in March/April, 155 wRC+ in May, 152 wRC+ in July, and a 145 wRC+ in September/October), but there were also stretches where things fell off the rails (21 wRC+ in June and 80 wRC+ in August).

But as real as those lows felt, the highs were just as meaningful, and I think a lot of people tend to forget how good Gorman has proven to be when he is right. It is very easy to just think of Gorman as the guy who is unplayable at the plate when he's off, but he's also shown he can be someone whom opposing teams cannot pitch to for sustained stretches as well.

In order to be fair to the present reality though, Gorman is coming off an atrocious season, and if he is not able to overcome the issues that were exacerbated by opposing pitchers in 2024, then Gorman's runway will end sooner rather than later.

Nolan Gorman has to prove he deserves a role with the Cardinals long term.

Gorman has always had a major flaw in his game — that massive strikeout rate. He's been able to navigate it and still find success before, but opposing pitchers were able to break him at the plate by blowing fastballs by him time and time again.

In 2023, Gorman teed off on fastballs, producing a +10 run value, .257 batting average, .487 slugging percentage, and .383 wOBA while striking out on the pitch 31.9% of the time. But in 2024, pitchers had their way with Gorman, and he regressed to a -11 run value, .176 batting average, .352 slugging percentage, and .278 wOBA while striking out on fastballs 41.1% of the time. His numbers against sinkers were not pretty as well.

We talked in depth about Gorman's struggles on a recent episode of Dealin' the Cards with Nate Schwartz of Pitcher's List. With the number of young bats on the Cardinals' roster striving for consistent playing time, I do think Gorman should be under pressure to produce early.

And yet, for all of the warning signs I just touched on, there have been very intriguing traits that Gorman has demonstrated that show you why the Cardinals want to give him another chance. During the 2023 season, the only player with a higher barrel rate than Nolan Gorman was Aaron Judge (and Gorman actually had more plate appearances than Judge that season). Even during his terrible year last year, Gorman maintained an elite barrel% and launch angle sweet-spot% and well above-average bat speed.

In 2023, Gorman's xwOBA, xSLG, average exit velocity, hard-hit%, and BB% all were a great levels as well. I already referenced the high-end production months he was able to pull off as well (which were the majority of his at-bats),

In 2023, Gorman also made strides defensively, moving from -12 OAA and -5 DRS in 548.2 innings at second base during his rookie year to -2 OAA and -2 DRS in 579.2 innings. Gorman had slight regression in 2024 defensively, as he posted -6 OAA and -4 DRS in the 871.2 innings he logged there.

With the uncertainty around Arenado's status still ever-present, it's hard to know if Gorman is going to get another long look at second base or man third base for the Cardinals. Second base is still a fairly new position for Gorman, as he spent most of his time in the minor leagues playing third. While there's uncertainty regarding how he'd play moving back to third base, having a set position next year would be good for him.

It sure does seem like Arenado is here to stay for now though, and if the Cardinals intend on having Victor Scott II or Michael Siani in center field often, then playing time does thin out a bit for some of their bats. Alec Burleson, for example, would be left without a clear role, and the DH spot gets harder to open up, with guys like Ivan Herrera, Willson Contreras, and Nolan Arenado likely taking up more time there.

The Cardinals have been adamant that Gorman will have consistent opportunities this year, but if he doesn't find a way to get things on track quickly, it'll be hard to keep him in the lineup when other bats need those opportunities as well.