Bounce-back candidate could be an effective rotation fix for the St. Louis Cardinals

The St. Louis Cardinals subtracted from their already weak starting rotation when they dealt Sonny Gray to the Boston Red Sox, but they received some potential replacement innings in return. Even if Richard Fitts can slot right into the rotation on Opening Day, there are plenty of other question marks within the starting five.

Free agent Tyler Mahle could fit right into the Cardinals' starting rotation.

The Cardinals are not looking to be heavy spenders this offseason and appear to have a few arms waiting for their chance in the minor leagues, so the 2026 season offers an opportunity for pitchers looking to rebuild their value. While the starting rotation has five names in pencil for next year, there is plenty that can and should change before the first game of the new campaign. Currently, Matthew Liberatore, Michael McGreevy, Andre Pallante, Kyle Leahy, and the newly acquired Fitts fill out the rotation, so there is room for improvement if the opportunity presents itself.

Even in a rebuild, the team has to remain competitive while playing in front of the Best Fans in Baseball, so I highly doubt we will ever see something like we saw with the Chicago White Sox and Colorado Rockies. The prideful Cardinals will probably stay near the middle of the league in terms of payroll, even in this transition period, so some mid-tier free agents will remain possibilities for Chaim Bloom. One such player is free agent starter Tyler Mahle, whom MLB writer Mark Feinsand mentioned as a perfect fit for the Cardinals. Mahle has an extensive injury history over the last few seasons but could be the ideal candidate to come to St. Louis and build his resume for his next contract.

Mahle, 31, has not pitched in more than 20 games since 2022 and has totaled just 24 starts over the past three seasons. Since that season, he has seen his four-seam fastball velocity drop from a mediocre 94 mph to just over 92 mph. When he has been on the mound, though, he has been an effective starter even without a power fastball. Last season with Texas, Mahle was 6-3 with a 2.34 ERA in 14 starts before the All-Star break. Unfortunately, the injury bug bit him again and he was placed on the injured list from June 15 until September 19, only making two more starts before entering free agency.

He appeared to be healthy over those last two starts and can hopefully undergo a mostly normal offseason this winter to regain some velocity and become a solid rotation option again. Health will be the number one concern for both Mahle and any team interested in his services, so any deal will likely be a one-year contract or an incentive-laden deal with options. MLB Trade Rumors predicted Mahle to sign for a single season at $15 million, a high price tag for a team that just shelled out $20 million along with Sonny Gray. Last year, Mahle was in the second year of $22 million that saw the righty be get paid $16.5 million this season. The injury question may limit his earnings potential, but a one-year deal seems the most likely outcome for Mahle this offseason.