Bloated starting pitching market is complicating Dustin May trade for Cardinals

The St. Louis Cardinals are open for business, with right-handed starting pitcher Dustin May being their top rental trade piece available to move. Unfortunately, there are a host of other starting pitchers available too, which makes finding a deal for May far more complicated.

Starters like Clay Holmes, Robbie Ray, Brady Singer, and Casey Mize are all still without new homes and are players that other contenders may prioritize over May, depending on asking prices. There are even more starters available than that, which is why those around the industry are calling this a "buyers' market" for rental starters.

The Cardinals signed May in the offseason with the intent of trading him at the deadline. That is still the plan. But May has impressed them internally this year, and if the right trade isn't out there, they may decide to hold onto him.

The Cardinals view May as someone they could extend the qualifying offer to this offseason, which means they would get draft pick compensation for him if he signed elsewhere, or they could bring him back on a one-year deal worth a little bit over $20 million. For context, May has already produced over $20 million in value by fWAR this season with two months still to go.

May is top 15 among all starters in baseball this year in FIP (3.14), and that's with his various blow-up starts baked in. Outside of those four really rough outings, May has been nails this year on the mound, and it has coincided with a return in his elite velocity and better command.

So, the question is, will the Cardinals find a suitor before the trade deadline?

Finding a trade for Dustin May is becoming complicated for the Cardinals

The Dodgers, Rays, Blue Jays, Braves, and Cubs have already gone shopping for starting pitchers. Each of those clubs (outside of the Dodgers and Blue Jays) could look to acquire another starter, with both the Rays and the Braves being linked to May already this past week.

The Phillies, Mariners, and Diamondbacks are all potential fits as well, as are probably other contenders who have not been named already. As more dominoes fall, May's market may become clearer, but there's also a world where the Cardinals say "no thanks" and decide to keep him.

They will only trade May if the return they get outweighs what they value a compensatory pick to be. The Cardinals targeted extra draft capital last offseason and have a high view of having more darts to throw in the draft, but if a team can make an offer that surpasses that, they'll make the move. But will they actually get that kind of offer in this market?

I think they will, but this may run right up to the 5pm CT trade deadline at this point. The Cardinals are also looking into moving Ryne Stanek, JoJo Romero, and Lars Nootbaar, so today could be a very, very busy day for Chaim Bloom and his staff.

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