Nolan Arenado: Philadelphia Phillies
Personally, I do not understand why other teams would want to add Nolan Arenado right now, so I remain skeptical that a deal will actually happen. But, MLB.com's Mark Feinsand reported that trade interest in Arenado may be picking up as many teams are in the market for a third baseman, so maybe he will actually be dealt.
Feinsand mentioned that the Cubs, Mariners, Tigers, Brewers, Phillies, Reds, and Astros are all interested in Eugenio Suarez after Ryan McMahon landed with the Yankees, but only one of those teams can grab him. So, they could pivot to Arenado if they miss out on Suarez.
The Astros general manager Dana Brown seemed to end any chance of Arenado ending up in Houston the other day with his comments on how Arenado's veto of a deal to the Astros went down this offseason, but with how uber thin the market is for quality third basemen, maybe a team can convince themselves that bringing in Arenado is worth the flyer.
That flyer would certainly require the Cardinals to eat a significant amount of Arenado's remaining contract. It's a complicated one, as the Rockies paid down $5 million of Arenado's deal for 2025 and 2026, so the Cardinals are on the hook for the remainder of the $27 million he's due this year prorated to the rest of the season, $22 million next year, and then $15 million in 2027. Arenado will be 35 next year and has already seen a steep decline offensively, so I would be very concerned as an opposing team that his bat will get even worse, not better.
Arenado has posted a .235/.295/.368 slash line in 2025 with just 10 home runs, resulting in an 85 wRC+ on the year. While his defense has remained top-notch, the bat is a real problem for someone making that much money. It's going to take a special team to grab Arenado, one that sees his offense as gravy, not essential, and could really use his defense.
The Phillies seem like a team that could fit that bill to me, as they have plenty of bats who can carry the offense, but could use better defense at third base. This would allow them to shop Alec Bohm as well for other upgrades they need to make.
Arenado must approve any deal the Cardinals agree to, though, limiting their options even further. It is unclear what teams he will be willing to go to, as many of the teams from "his list" are likely not interested.
My other sneaky pick would be the Angels, as it would be a chance for Arenado to return home, and the club is in the mix for a Wild Card spot right now.