7 things that would make 2025 a successful reset year for the St. Louis Cardinals

A few weeks ago, I reflected on a world where the St. Louis Cardinals' reset in 2025 imploded and sent the club into a full-scale rebuild. What a fun topic!

The reason I did that is because, sadly, it's in the range of outcomes for this club. While it feels rather unlikely, there is a world where the young talent proves it is not good enough, decisions (or lack of decisions) from this offseason haunt them, and Chaim Bloom must navigate a true tear down of the roster and multiple years of rebuilding.

Today I want to focus on what a successful reset year for the Cardinals could look like.

Let's define success for a moment, and then I'll dive into the specifics of what that could look like. In a normal year, success for the Cardinals is centered on team performance, with individual triumphs coming second. At the end of the day, it doesn't truly matter who is leading to success on the field as long as it's happening - at least in past years.

Success in 2025 is not the same. Player development is the true barometer for success, with team record and playoff contention a distant second.

Obviously there are levels to this success. One or two players showing promise does not mean this was a successful year for player development, but hitting on every single player is also not required for this to go well. It's a nuanced situation. Ultimately, success will be the Cardinals having a young core they can point to moving forward and build around, and having clarity on which areas they need to upgrade.

With that being said, here are examples of ways 2025 could turn out to be a success. Not all of these things need to happen to qualify as that, but even if half of them do, things will look bright in St. Louis moving forward.

What does success look like for the Cardinals in 2025?

1. Jordan Walker and Nolan Gorman rebound from frustrating 2024 campaigns

Remember ten months ago when the Cardinals, this fanbase, and the baseball world were excited about the promise Jordan Walker and Nolan Gorman had already shown at the Major League level at such a young age? Feels like a long time ago now, but it's really not a crazy thought to think they can regain that status in 2025.

Walker is just 22 years old, only a few months older than JJ Wetherholt and Travis Bazzana. He's just a week older than Paul Skenes. He's younger than top prospects like Dylan Crews, Coby Mayo, Colson Montgomery, Matt Shaw, and so many other prospects who have not even sniffed an MLB debut yet. Oh, and he's already logged 643 big-league plate appearances at this young age.

2024 was a disaster for Walker, and there's no way around that. But as a 21-year-old, Walker slashed .276/.342/.445 with 16 home runs and 51 RBI in just 117 games, good for a 117 wRC+. Walker needs to overcome some obstacles to get back to that level of play and ascend to being even more than that, but considering he was a top prospect in baseball two years ago and has already shown his skills can translate, I like his odds of doing so.

Same with Gorman. Already posting 1179 plate appearances into his career, the 24-year-old has slugged 60 home runs and is an above-league average hitter for his career, but outside of his own disaster in 2024, he was proving to be one of the best young hitters in the game.

In 2023, Gorman posted a 118 wRC+ while mashing 27 home runs in 119 games. Swing and miss will always be a part of his game, but the issue for him last year was that he was striking out at a historically bad rate. Gorman will also remain a streaky hitter, but as he showed in 2023, he can be incredible more often than not while managing those slumps. His issue last year was that he was in a season-long slump.

Even while Gorman struggled so much in 2024 and looked mentally broken at the plate, he still maintained a 98th percentile Barrel% and 96th percentile LA Sweet-Spot% along with great bat speed and expected slugging percentage. When Gorman makes contact with the ball, he maximizes that damage and mashes the ball. There is no reason to give up on that kind of player right now, and he will have every opportunity to rebound next year.

One more reason to believe in rebound seasons from Walker and Gorman: there is a new hitting coach in place in Brant Brown and Chaim Bloom is overhauling player development from the ground up. There will be many new voices, philosophies, and technologies available to the two young sluggers, so this is not just another case of doing the same thing and expecting different results.

2. Masyn Winn builds upon his incredible rookie campaign

An awesome beginning to your big-league career does not guarantee success afterward, just look at the struggles of Walker and Gorman or the collapse of Dylan Carlson. I have full confidence that Masyn Winn will be a great player for a long time, but he still has to go out and prove it.

We all knew Winn was a wizard defensively, and he proved to be one of the best defenders in baseball already as a rookie. Continuing to develop in that area will only help him build his case as a young star in this league.

Winn surprised us all with how quickly he adjusted to Major League pitching. After struggling in his brief stint in 2023, Winn posted a 103 wRC+ while slashing .267/.314/.416 in his rookie campaign. Winn even began unlocking his power in the second half, slugging 10 of his 15 home runs after the All-Star Break.

3. Andre Pallante and Michael McGreevy settle in as reliable big-league starters

One of the greatest issues the Cardinals have had over the last five or so years has been an inability to produce young pitching for their rotation. You can read some research I did in October on their lack of production from internally developed starters, and let me warn you, it's appalling.

Andre Pallante and Micahel McGreevy don't have the ceilings that other young starters nearing their debut in St. Louis have, but both showed signs that they can be quality big-league starters moving forward and if they continue to move in those directions, it can have a massive impact on the Cardinals' ability to contend in the future.

For years now, the Cardinals keep having to go out and pay tens of millions of dollars to back end of the rotation arms because they did not have young pitching to fill the gaps. But in 2024, Pallante made 20 starts for the Cardinals and posted a 3.56 ERA in their rotation. He got better and better as the season went on, and established himself as a legit rotation option moving forward. Pallante pitched like a number three starter in 2024, and if he can do that or even be a quality back-end guy moving forward, that's huge.

McGreevy got a much smaller sample size in 2024, but in the four appearances (three starts) he made, McGreevy posted a 1.96 ERA and 2.56 FIP while totally proving myself and many other doubters wrong. While that sample size is way too small to bank on moving forward (and no one thinks he's going to be a sub-2.00 ERA guy), he did show a lot of promise and could snag a rotation spot moving forward as well.

4. The return the Cardinals get from offseason trades (or in season) shows promise

There is a lot of uncertainty around whether or not the Cardinals will trade names like Ryan Helsley, Erick Fedde, and Steven Matz this offseason, but if they do (or during the 2025 season), getting quality returns can be a sign of success for 2025.

Future value is important for this club right now. St. Louis needs to be stacking their deck for 2026 and beyond rather than finding a way to be competitive in 2025. Sure, winning games is good, but not at the expense of their future. They need to maximize their future talent pool, and if they do, that's a great step in the right direction.

I also think it's worth remembering that guys like Sonny Gray and Willson Contreras could change their minds at some point and be open to a trade. While I actually like their presence with the club in 2025, that does open routes toward acquiring more young talent. Or maybe the Cardinals decide that some members of their young core like Brendan Donovan, Lars Nootbaar, or Ivan Herrera are worth moving for the right price.

5. Lars Nootbaar stays healthy and plays in 140+ games

I'm just going to tease this for now, but as someone who began to cool on my Lars Nootbaar belief this past season, you cannot deny the batted ball numbers and how stinking good he can be at the plate when he stays on the field.

That's the kicker for Nootbaar. I know some of you reading this think he is overrated and not as good as people say he is. In some ways you're right. When Nootbaar is injured, he provides zero value and hurts the club. When he returns from an injury, he usually is extremely rusty and also hurts the club. But man, once he gets comfortable and gets going, he's a major asset for this lineup.

Success for the Cardinals in 2025 would look like Nootbaar staying healthy for the majority of the season. Nootbaar's career-high in games played was 117 in 2023, and that's just not acceptable for someone who is supposed to be a major part of their future. If Nootbaar can stay healthy, I'm confident he'll produce. If he doesn't...then I'm not sure what else is left to say about him other than he's fun when he's around but that's not happening often enough.

6. Young arms like Quinn Matthews and Tink Hence establish themselves as legit arms at the Major League level

According to Baseball America, Quinn Mathews and Tink Hence were both top 40 prospects in baseball by season's end and will likely rise even higher soon. MLB Pipeline had both arms in their top 100 and I am sure they'll rise in their preseason rankings as well.

Mathews and Hence have legit front-line starter upside. Their ceilings are likely more like high-end number two starters than true aces, but man, having one or two homegrown guys like that on cheap contracts is a massive asset to have. This might not sound all that crazy, but even if one or both of them can become true number three starters, that is a huge boost to the organization long-term.

7. JJ Wetherholt looks like he'll live up to the hype and the Cardinals strike gold with the fifth overall pick in the 2025 MLB Draft

The industry was shocked to see a talent like JJ Wetherholt fall to the Cardinals at number seven overall in the 2024 MLB Draft, and he's already drawing comparisons to All-Star caliber players like Alex Bregman. Wetherholt's development will be a key part of the Cardinals' success moving forward, and 2025 will feel a lot better if he produces at the levels he gets to experience this year.

In today's game, selections like Wetherholt can move through the system rather quickly. Wetherholt was one of the highest-regarded collegiate bats of the last decade, so if things go right for him, he could be knocking on the door of St. Louis very soon.

The Cardinals have had a lot of young bats come up to St. Louis over the last few years, and while there is still a lot of promise with guys like Walker, Nootbaar, Gorman, Donovan, Winn, Herrera, Burleson, Saggese, and Scott, Wetherholt could be the best of the bunch.

Along with that, the Cardinals' luck in the draft lottery this offseason landed them the number five pick in the 2025 MLB Draft, so the Cardinals have another opportunity to add a premium talent to their farm system this coming July. If the Cardinals hit on that pick, things will be looking even brighter.

Also worth noting - the Cardinals had just one selection in the top 80 picks in the 2024 MLB Draft. While they loved getting Wetherholt at number seven, waiting that long for their next pick wasn't great for strengthening the farm system as a whole. This year, they own the 5th, 54th, and 75th (thanks to receiving a competitive balance pick this year), which gives them even more shots to improve their farm system.

Added Bonus: Making a legitimate push for the playoffs

Feel free to disagree with me on this one, but an "added bonus" for 2025 in my eyes would be the team being competitive and making a real push for the playoffs.

No, "tanking" would not actually help them next year. Due to the new draft lottery rules, the Cardinals cannot select in the top 10 of the 2026 MLB Draft, so there's no incentive for losing in 2025.

But at the time time, I don't think their record as a team is toward the top of the list of important things in 2025. What matters most to me is seeing as many of the things I listed above become reality. But, if the young talent in St. Louis does produce, it probably would mean the club is winning games, and that would be a great thing to watch.

If the Cardinals win games in 2025 because of Willson Contreras, Sonny Gray, Ryan Helsley, Erick Fedde, or other veterans on their roster, that's good, but might not mean much for the future. But if the Cardinals are winning games because their offense is being led by Jordan Walker, Masyn Winn, Nolan Gorman, Lars Nootbaar, Brendan Donovan, Ivan Herrera, Alec Burleson, and the rest of their young bats, that's a big deal. If young pitching like Quinn Mathews, Michael McGreevy, Andre Pallante, and Tink Hence lead the rotation, then we can have confidence in their pitching in 2026 and beyond.

I love watching winning baseball, so I'm hoping we get some of that in 2025. But if I could be so selfish, I'd love for the young talent to be the main reason why the Cardinals contend. If that's the case, the Cardinals' outlook going into 2026 is going to be a lot brighter than it may feel right now.