6 realistic starting pitchers who could be home run signings for the Cardinals

While the St. Louis Cardinals are not expected to be major players in free agency this year, they are going to be active in looking for starting pitchers to add to their rotation, and they may even take a bigger swing than you might be thinking.

While I find it very unlikely that they'd pursue one of the biggest name starters like Dylan Cease, Framber Valdez, and the likes of those arms, reports do indicate that the Cardinals are letting free agents know they are interested, and some of those options will depend on how much money they can move from their books. If that's the case, that means they are likely talking to some arms that are a bit bigger name than the group of pitchers that will be getting $5ish million deals.

Today, I wanted to circle five different names that I find both exciting and realistic for the Cardinals to sign this offseason. Expectations matter, and so yes, I think it is fair to get excited about arms below the top of the market if they have the right set of tools and upside. While John Mozeliak liked to color within the lines and avoid risky starters with higher upside, I do believe Bloom's front office will be targeting different arms, evidenced by the high velocity and high "stuff" guys he targeted in the 2025 MLB Draft and at the MLB trade deadline.

So, with that being said, let's dive into five arms that I think are realistic fits for St. Louis that also could end up being home run signings.

Tyler Mahle

Throughout his MLB career, Tyler Mahle has been a very effective starting pitcher, but has struggled to stay healthy in recent years as he entered his prime. Since 2020, Mahle has posted a 3.61 ERA while he's been on the bump with a 25.4 K%, but he's only thrown 473.1 innings.

Mahle barely pitched in 2023 and 2024, but upon his return in 2025 with the Texas Rangers, he was dynamite on the mound despite a major dip in his K% and whiff rate. It's hard to know how much of that can be attributed to working his way back from Tommy John and shoulder surgeries. Yes, the injury history is concerning, but he did make it back to the Rangers' rotation to end the 2025 season after missing more time. In total, Mahle made 16 starts for Texas this past season, posting a 2.18 ERA and 3.37 FIP in the process.

My guess is that Mahle is going to have to take a one-year deal for the most money he can find, and a team like St. Louis offers him the opportunity to be guaranteed a rotation spot and pitch in a pitcher-friendly ballpark. Oh, and he should have a good defense behind him, so all of those factors could be highly appealing to a player like Mahle, who likely wants to cash in on a long-term deal after 2026.

One more added wrinkle for you, and it is something I am going to highlight for multiple pitchers on this list. In 2024 and 2025, the Cardinals were able to keep their pitching staff very healthy, with only John King hitting the injured list from their active roster during the 2025 season, and in 2024, Sonny Gray and Lance Lynn just had brief stints on the injured list.

For arms that have a history of getting hurt, the Cardinals clearly had a plan to keep their starters healthy the last two years, and that plan worked. Will it keep working? Who knows. But if a free agent starter wants to increase their value before hitting free agency again in the next few offseasons, finding a way to stay healthy will be essential. Mahle could really benefit from a full season of health, and that makes St. Louis an even more appealing location.