6 low-risk, high-reward starting pitching targets for the Cardinals this offseason

Shane Bieber

I'm going to say this upfront, I do not see this happening. I'm simply talking through a scenario I consider interesting for St. Louis, but I just do not see them actually pulling it off.

If the Cardinals wanted to get really frisky this offseason, working with Shane Bieber on a creative multi-year deal or a lucrative one-year deal would make all of the sense in the world.

2023 was a down year for Bieber as his strikeout stuff continued to decline, walks went up, he was getting hit harder, and all signs pointed to him not being the same guy anymore. Well, it was just two starts in 2024, but Bieber was unhittable, allowing zero runs in 12 innings while striking out 20 batters in the process.

Bieber was then sidelined for the remained of the season due to Tommy John surgery and is now entering free agency in a bit of a limbo.

Believe it or not, Bieber is actually younger than Buehler and will not turn 30 until May. Bieber, if he recovers well and gets back on the track he was on before elbow surgery, still could have multiple prime years ahead of him, making him a fascinating risk for anyone who wants to try.

Bieber should be back in early 2025, but you never quite know with surgeries like his. I am sure there will be some contenders out there who would take on that kind of risk, but the Cardinals would be wise to consider outbidding the market if it does not get too crazy.

Injuries are always a factor, but as long as Bieber is healthy, I doubt he is not an effective starting pitcher moving forward. Could he trend more toward a number three starter? That could happen. But there is also the promise of him returning to top form, and that's a guy you cannot get at a bargain on the open market, especially before the age of 30.

I personally would be open to giving him a multi-year deal with options if he is open to it. Maybe something like a two-year, $40 million deal with an option for a third year? Maybe a mutual option where Bieber could opt out or the Cardinals could buy him out if either side wanted out of that third year? I think we'll see contenders offering him one-year deals, but not sure any would go multi-year with him, and that may be the way to beat the market.

Or just simply pay more than anyone else for that one-year deal. Obviously, if the Cardinals are slashing payroll significantly, it is not happening, but if don't have to reduce by a crazy amount and they are letting a lot of veterans go via free agency or trade, there could be some money to play around with.

Again, the appeal here has to be the fact that the Cardinals could find a front-line starter for their future or they are able to flip him for a great return at the deadline. If it doesn't work out, again, just wastes money.

The one wrench that could get thrown into this that I would 100% avoid Bieber would be if he gets a qualifying offer from the Guardians. There is no way the Cardinals should be forfeiting a draft pick this offseason, and John Mozeliak has already confirmed this himself. It still feels unclear whether or not the Guardians give him one at this point, as he'd become their highest-paid player if they did. One year of that after at minimum making the ALCS could be something that interests them, but it may hamstring what they are able to do with other areas of their roster.

Again, we are still weeks away from seeing how the market is beginning to develop, and likely a month away from a lot of things actually happening. Each of these names could have things happen with them that make them poor targets for St. Louis, but I did want to examine each of the six and how they could be a target for the Cardinals if things move in their direction.