6 low-risk, high-reward starting pitching targets for the Cardinals this offseason

John Means

Back to buy low-candidates, John Means emerged as a promising starter for the Baltimore Orioles toward the end of their rebuilding years. In 2019, Means posted a 3.60 ERA in 155 innings, and after a 4.53 ERA in the COVID season, replicated his 2019 production with a 3.62 ERA in 26 starts for the Orioles.

Since then, Means has had Tommy John surgery twice, keeping him off of the field for the majority of the 2022-2024 seasons. Even so, whenever Means has been back on the mound, he has been effective, and he is totally worth a flyer for a team like the Cardinals who can afford a risk here.

Means fits a lot of the profile of what the Cardinals have liked in their starters in recent years. Means is elite at preventing walks, so he rarely gives up a free base to opposing hitters. Means does not generate many strikeouts, but his changeup does generate a lot of whiffs and he is at his best when he is keeping hitters off balance and getting weak contact.

We aren't talking about a guy here in Means who is going to emerge as some top-of-the-rotation starter if all goes well, but he could be a highly effective mid-rotation arm. Lefties tend to have an advantage in Busch Stadium as well, so Means could do a Jose Quintana impression for the Cardinals if all goes well.

Means to me would be the kind of signing the Cardinals could make if he is not getting great offers and is looking for a prove-it deal, and the club could flip him at the deadline if they are selling or use him as a part of a playoff push if they are able to play well. I would assume that Means is getting less than the $12 million options for Gibson or Lynn, but if that is not the case, then it probably just makes more sense to bring back one of those guys over him.